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Strategies & Market Trends : Peabody Coal vanguard retirement forum

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From: MACD X	11/17/2007 6:38:39 PM
	of 75

11 17 07 continue to be defensive and stay in the bond fund Last week I changed recommendations to exit the large cap fund that we have been in from the beginning and change to the vanguard bond fund. This turned out to be a good call at least for last week as the bond fund is up slightly and the vanguard prime cap fund was down for the week. I broke the rules and exited a fund that didnt give the long term signal to exit by the moving average crossing that has been discussed here on every weekly update. I must apologize for this as I never intended for this site to be a short term trading site but to focus on longer term trends quick jumps in and out carry some minor risks to it as it is possible to miss the next up move and struggle to get back into a fund at a timely manner. So I am taking a risk that this is a major top. Major tops are almost never successfully called and attempting to do so is ill advised. So I will change funds back to a stock related fund if signs show up that may warrant this. We are at a point if the market is going to rally it should happen about here at the point where we are now. The chart below tracks the three sectors that I watch and are the small cap mid cap and large cap sectors. I have pointed this out many times. stockcharts.com The thing to notice on the chart above is that they are trending down, this gives no reason to enter at this time as the market is under pressure. In the link below you can see all the funds that are offered to use from Vanguard that are related to small cap mid cap and large cap, and if you look at the upper right hand corner you can see how they performed last week. Notice that more charts have broken the long term trend line that is on every chart. This is one of the thing that happen at long term tops, more and more sectors drop below trendline support. stockcharts.com For those becoming interested in chart analysis and for a definition of trendlines that was mentioned above refer to the link below stockcharts.com

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