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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: marginnayan who wrote (71315)11/18/2007 2:58:08 PM
From: marginnayan  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
Reality Check for Housing: Case in point Florida State

You just watch the trouble coming down here in Florida. We have 200 homes in my association and 13 are in foreclosure. What is that, seven percent? Right now the association problem is maintaining the attractiveness of the area. The foreclosed homes have the water and power turned off. So the lawn is not mowed and the bushes aren't trimmed.

Now, we are going into the dry season so things don't grow too fast, but come the spring when the humidity comes back, those homes are going to be in real trouble. Down here in Southwest Florida today the humidly is a "dry" 77%. In the spring it goes back into the 90's. An empty home has to keep the air conditioning on to keep the inside humidity under 60% so mold doesn't grow on the walls. When a house goes moldy, it literally has to be gutted, or it's value drops dramatically.

Or, all we need is an active hurricane season. Who is going to put up hurricane shutters? Who is going to fix the roof if tiles blow off?

Do you see my point? The academic looking at the housing problem sees the homes for sale numbers and the drop in new construction and "figures" months and average past sales totals and says we will all be ok in, say, exactly 27 months.

NO. I remember the S&L mess in the 80's and the RTC (Resolution Trust Corporation). They took over properties and left them abandoned until they were condemned and then torn down.

- Live Weekend Update from my reliable sources
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