He's on a roll>Poll:Giuliani passes McCain in Arizona
Paul Giblin, Tribune, nov 20 2007
Presidential contender Rudy Giuliani has edged ahead of John McCain among Republican voters in Arizona, marking a huge change in the GOP hierarchy just three months before Arizona voters cast ballots in the state’s presidential preference elections.
Most surveys have shown McCain’s support eroding since the beginning of the year, but the independent Rocky Mountain Poll released on Monday was the first major survey that put McCain behind any of his GOP rivals.
The survey pegged Giuliani’s support among Republican voters statewide at 20 percent. McCain follows two points behind at 18 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error.
Behind them, Mitt Romney trails at 11 percent support and Fred Thompson registers 10 percent.
The major headline from the poll is McCain, said Earl de Berge, research director of the Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center, which conducted the poll.
“He’s a favorite son in Arizona, and for him not to be able to just walk away with the nomination here strikes me as a story in itself,” de Berge said. “He should be head and shoulders above everybody else.”
McCain is running out of time to reverse the downward trend if he hopes to win his own state on Super Duper Tuesday, Feb. 5, when residents in 23 states will vote.
McCain commanded 40 percent support among Arizona Republicans in January, according to the Rocky Mountain Poll. His support slipped to 34 percent in March and crashed this month.
McCain is still feeling a backlash from his high-profile support for the Senate’s attempt at comprehensive border security and immigration reform, de Berge said.
More recently, McCain has adjusted his position on border and immigration issues, saying he supports a border-enforcement-first approach.
For now, women voters are tipping the balance in favor of Giuliani, according to the survey. Approximately 22 percent of women support Giuliani, compared with 14 percent for McCain.
The survey of 800 voters was conducted between Nov. 12 and 15. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, according to the Behavior Research Center. |
