Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.27

+0.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Elroy who wrote (74647)	11/21/2007 1:34:50 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) of 77400

Hmm. When I said I believed the Cisco stock downside risk was close to nil, the stock was trading around $28 or $29. Right now, it's still trading between $28 or $29. Sounds like my characterization of the downside risk was pretty close to the mark. And btw, I still believe the downside risk is minimal at this point and is far outweighed by the upside potential. I haven't run the statistics like Dinesh to prove what I'm about to say, so please refrain from flaming me. However, I think the risk of the stock going below $28 is less than 5%, but I think the probability of the stock closing above $30 sometime in January is greater than 90%. And I think the probability of the stock closing at $35 or higher sometime in January is around 5%. If you wanted to calculate an expected value on my guesses as to the stocks value a couple months from now, it might look something like this: Expected Value of CSCO sometime in January = .05$27 + .90$30 + .05*$35 = $30.10 I sometimes find this a useful exercise to think through where I think a stock might land in a period of time.

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