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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread

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To: Brumar89 who wrote (17672)	11/23/2007 12:11:12 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (1) of 36921

Nothing scandalous about that. He thinks the global average temp in 20 years won't be much different than now. Lets look at this in a little detail just to expose you guys. From the IPCC, 2007 the best estimate for surface temp increases (global average) at the end of 2100 is 1.8-4.0 deg C above the 1980-1990 baseline. Lindzen's bet was over the range of (approx) 2000-2020. Scaling off the graph shown in the link, the temp change in the first few decades of this century is 2 deg C/100 years or 0.4 deg C in 20 years. So what exactly is Lindzen up to in this bet? He will only lose the bet if the global warming is > then the best estimates of the existing models the IPCC reports. And he will only do this if he gets 2:1 odds in his favor. Anyone who thinks Lindzen is a AGW denier, other than for collecting speaking fees, is a moron. See the graph in this link: epa.gov

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