(I said that we "might be", and that there would be no way to know for sure until the statistics were in --- which wouldn't be for another six to nine months or so from this point-in-time.)
So it's between "probably" and "might?" <G>
Generally, the initial stats on quarterly growth are made public (subject to later revision) midway into the succeeding quarter. Thus, in Fall, we know how the Summer quarter stacked up, and in Winter, we'll know about this Fall quarter.
So, if we "might" be in a recession now, we'll know by February if this quarter was in negative growth or not (and so far, except for the stock markets, there's no indication that we are in a period of negative growth).
While I agree that in the business cycle, we are certainly due for a short recession after 50+ months of near record growth, there's no indication that I'm aware of that such a negative growth period is beginning. The anti-Bush folks are sure hoping for it, though! |
