Whose judgment? ... does this judgment diverge from trend, if so why? ... wouldn't there be other judgments to the contrary, if not how can we have a market to play in? ... and what sort of time period are we talking, years months or weeks? ... in the ultra-short term my judgment seems so far to be backed up by trend - i judge that all my puppies will remain absolutely stable, until nine thirty eastern time monday, this is just an educated guess based on trend of twenty-something hours -g-
You think usd has much of a bounce in it here? ... i think it a real possibility, it already has bounced of course, near ten per cent in loonie terms ... but i see no more than two or three more per cent in it, near term, a sharp bear market rally that will prove short ... one reason is that Dodge will cut less than will Bernanke, because rates never got so high here ... another is that there are not shiploads of loonies spread around the planet waiting to return home, related to this is that we are cursed with a recent lack of imperial ambition and so have little hope of achieving over-reach sufficient to dilute our fiat beyond what we can do ourselves here ... so after a fews days or months or whatever when gold resumes the loonie will fall in gold terms, but not nearly as much as will usd ... the usd/loonie trend will turn yes, but later, and from a point higher
Your judgment may vary ... if so why, the presidential year thing? ... yes i wonder about that too, could be a factor ... but a smaller one than the amount of currency devaluation they'll do to get out of the dodgy mortgage mess, imho |
