New Iowa Poll
weblogs.baltimoresun.com
DES MOINES—The race for president on the Democratic and Republican sides has made a dramatic turn in Iowa with longtime frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney being outflanked by Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, a new poll showed Saturday.
The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll, one of the most respected measures of the nation's first caucus state, showed Obama, the Illinois Democrat, with the backing of 28 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, compared to 25 percent for Clinton, 23 percent for John Edwards and 9 percent for Bill Richardson.
On the Republican side, Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, had support from 29 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers to 24 percent for Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who has poured millions of dollars into the Iowa campaign. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani was third with 13 percent while former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson was fourth with 9 percent, the survey showed.
The poll, which has an error margin of 4.4 percentage points, was conducted Nov. 25-28. It showed a significant shift during the last two months among those who say they plan to attend the nation's leadoff presidential deliberations on Jan. 3.
In early October, the poll found a tight three-way Democrat race led by Clinton, with 29 percent, who had held national front-runner status. The latest results indicate a contest that remains extremely fluid, with only weeks remaining before the caucuses, since slightly more than half of the Democrats surveyed saying they could change their minds.
Among Republicans, Romney had been the longtime frontrunner in Iowa and had the support of 29 percent of GOP caucusgoers eight weeks ago. But Huckabee, who had the backing of 12 percent, has more than doubled his support since early October while Thompson has dropped from 18 percent to 9 percent. Giuliani has made few gains and few visits to the state and remains barely in double digits.
Still, the survey found six out of 10 Republican caucusgoers could also change their minds before caucus day.
Obama leads with support from 31 percent of women likely attend the caucuses, the poll shows, compared to 26 percent for Clinton. In October, she had support from 34 percent of women, compared to 21 percent for Obama.
The gender group is essential because the poll shows roughly six in 10 likely Democratic caucus participants are women.
Obama dominates among younger voters, with support from 48 percent from those younger than 35. Clinton was the choice of 19 percent in that group, with Edwards getting 17 percent.
Posted by John McCormick on December 1, 2007 10:24 PM | |
