Sondo : Thanks for the response (no personal slam taken) I have found my worst trades occur when my fear or greed get out of balance. I think posting one's views is a good check on whether one is emotional or rational on a stock pick. I use all responses to my posts as a check on my thought process. I remain very confident on my DDIM analysis, though.
As to D-T, I agree its a good accounting firm and also think their management consulting division does a good job. However, their computer consulting division is a distant third (at best), to Anderson (sp?) and Coopers. Yes, its Year 2000 web site is labeled "under construction", but it was also labeled under construction at the beginning of September when I first checked it. Six weeks is plenty of time to get more of the web site up and running. Where is everyone's sense of urgency? Ardes 2K is a diagnostic product. Its window of opportunity is rapidly running out.
I think we agree that DDIM's small float and "natural volume" allow large players to exercise extraordinary control over the stock price. I agree a couple of large players probably are responsible for the move from $25 to $40. However, I see many of the large players exiting (Soros, Cruttendon Roth, insiders). The problem with all pyramid schemes is they collapse quickly as soon as new money stops arriving.
The UIS sale is certainly better than a sharp stick in the eye. However, this is the same sale Mr. Martin alluded to in the last conference call! The reason I get so outraged is I think there is a legitimate opportunity in the year 2000 problem. Take a look at the contracts announced and hiring binge at KEA to see a company siezing the opportunity. Larry Martin should be aggressively hiring new senior management, hiring entry level consultants, and winning new business (he said at the last conference call they'd book $40 mm in new business this quarter, yet there haven't been any announcements). What does he seem to be doing? Issuing two new press releases both of which rehash old news! In my opinion DDIM is a mechanism for selling expensive stock to suckers rather than any kind of play on the year 2000.
I try to avoid half-full or half-empty reasoning. I think in this case I am correct in determining the emperor has no clothes.
Good luck. |
