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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: one_less who wrote (250475)12/4/2007 10:12:32 AM
From: michael97123  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
might you be overstating the shiaa crescent global threat case? This might be similar to the old soviet case of creating buffers after history of a devastating war. Was stalin advancing communism or protecting mother russia? A little of both i guess. Given the risk assessment review by US intel, perhaps some of irans motivations was to use threat of nukes as a way to rejoin the world. Each of the three options represents opiniions of one interest group or another in iran.
1 spread shiaa islam khomenini, ahmadijad
2. buffer military, rafsansjani and assymetric deterrent to US perceived threat.
3. re-engage with the world reformers, liberals

In 1980, it seemed clear that it was mostly #1 or khomeni as trotsky. Post iraq war, #2 seemed to be the reason and maybe now with some discourse between US and Iran we can move to #3.
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