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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (94294)12/5/2007 1:35:47 PM
From: Umunhum  Read Replies (1) of 206151
 
Your entire premise is mistaken as demand for oil (at least in the US) is horribly inelastic.

That's why we are going to have a price spike. Every $1 per barrel is only 2.5 cents at the pump. If the price rises high enough, there will be some elasticity added.


That said, gasoline demand basically flat from '06.

Demand is flat because the price of oil increased about $30 this year. Where would demand be if oil was still selling for $60 a barrel? Does this mean we are going to continue to see oil prices rise $30 a year to keep demand flat?

the diesel problem in China is related to government price controls on the fuel, not to fundamental shortages.

It is obvious to me that if China ceased trying to control the price of diesel, both the price and demand of diesel will rise.

Brazil's discovery should have no impact on oil prices for a very long time.

I agree. Peak oil will be accepted as fact even by you before production from the Tupi field hits the market.

In the meantime, energy will underperform the rest of the market, especially tech.

I couldn't disagree more.

I'm surprised you didn't say we were past peak oil to support your bullish view. Not a believer?

I believe we are both past peak oil and peak exports. Do I detect a tone a sarcasm in your post? How high do oil prices have to rise with no supply response before you accept that we've past peak oil?
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