The price of oil falls $10 and they call it "disinflationary."
If you believe a hot airbag on the radio rather than me, then maybe you will believe ECRI.
NEW YORK, Dec 7 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures were higher in November due mostly to inflationary moves in measures of loans, jobs and vendor performance, a private research group's report said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 119.7 in November from 119.0 in October, revised up from 116.5.
"Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG remains in a cyclical downtrend, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures are still subdued," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.
The upward pressure on the gauge was partly offset by a disinflationary move in measures of interest rates and
commodities prices, Hubman said.
The gauge's annualized growth rate, which smooths out
monthly fluctuations, rose to minus 0.9 percent from minus 2.1 percent in October, upwardly revised from negative 5.6.
Oil prices FELL last month... That is "disinflationary" but it doesn't mean the inflation rate will fall... just as "inflationary" does not mean higher inflation. It is a sum of components in the total index.
Remember, "inflationary" means it "adds to inflation" but it does not mean "causes HIGH inflation." Brinker said higher priced oil was not inflationary and he was wrong. He was right that the "taxing effect" of the higher prices would slow the economy so not all the price increase would pass-through to the headline CPI. In his recent Marketimer, he distances himself from when he said the small inflation adjustment for iBonds PROVED he was right that higher priced oil was not inflationary. The fact then was oil was down year over year... so headline inflation was lower. Today he makes it sound like in his snoozeletter that he was talking about CORE INFLATION all along... King of spin at best! Serial Liar to others. |
