I have nothing against the triangle hypothesis, to the contrary, I like it. But it has become too broadly accepted. Therefore, it would be wise to keep in mind more alternatives. One obvious one, of course, is that SPX may have made an orthodox top last July, followed by an ABC-X-ABC (where X is the Oct top) -- and now, the index may be free and clear in the 5th wave since Oct 2005 -- to new highs.
(Also, Oct decline, after all, may have been a wedge, an impulse).
An ED from March low is still possible.
An ED from the August low is also still possible.
All that said, the putative triangle since July, imo, for now stays on the top. |
