Moenar:
> I am very interested to know your timetable for the stock price
> and why this stock going to be so explosive.
Sun is the force behind the revloution that is taking place at this time with the overall technology. The future is in connectability, networking and portability in computing. Sun has introduced concepts and the technology supporting this new era of computing. Computing is no longer just the desktop (PCs or otherwise), it now includes many things from your home toaster to the computer in your car, to the TV you watch, and to anything that has a chip inside it and is running on electricity. Just like humans who have a physical body and a soul that makes that physical body behave in a certain pattern, all objects that have a chip inside and run with electricity consist of a hardware and a software that runs them. The so called software's foundation part is going toward a universal standard known as Java. This will be the soul of all hardwares in one way or another. Applications will simply be developed using Java technology (and no it is not just another language as WIntel wants people to believe) on the desktop (either Windows, UNIX, etc.), and deployed everywhere, and this everywhere does not mean just different operating systems, but an entire sector of products (from ATM cards, to the door operners, to anything you can think of). Sun not only owns the Java technology but also will be aggressively expanding into manufacturing of specialized chips either directly or via partnership with other manufacturers such as LSI Logic, Intel, etc.
On the server side, Sun will be enjoying perhaps the most aggressive growth a company has ever experienced! Java has brought in the idea of thin client. We have gone over this many times on this thread before but to summarize, this is the concept of having only those things that you really need on your machine for processing and possessing the information technology. In otherwords if you want to write a document using for example MS Word, you should not be forced to have an entire Windows 95 or NT operating system on your PC to run MS word! The idea is simple and is sort of going back to the old concept that existed in the early 70's with Mainframe computers and dummy terminals, with the exception of enhancing the concept to cost at much much lower prices in addition to have a software infrastructure that is componentized and is encapsulated and contained in one package that can be downloaded and run anywhere! As a manifestation of Java, componization of software has come to truly exist, and similar to hardware componization where for example you can build a PC using the CPU from Intel, the DRAM from Micron, and the hard drive from Segate, etc. you can now build software using components made by different vendors. Thus lowering the cost of software at an unbelievable levels.
The concept of NCs manipulates this componization model, thus allowing a larger number of consumers (from my 82 year grandma to even Bill Gates of Microsoft) own and enjoy the information technology without having to own all the fat, and ugly hardware and software that have been required up to this point and were forced by WIntel. Software will simply become similar to video movies, companies such as AOL will become similar to Video rental stores, and NCs will be similar to VCRs. The thin client is not just limited to NCs and may include many other instruments including and again not limited to TVs! The fundamental entity that will make thin client succeed is one or more clusters of servers to which these thin clients are connected. So in a way the ugly and fat client has been taken away from the client machines and put on the servers. Thus reducing the cost of ownership of client machines dramatically. This has and will continue to open up a broader market since now all consumers can participate rather than special groups of people who currently are PC (i.e. WIntel) buyers/users.
Sun Microsystems as being the leader in the revolution will gain beyond imagination, in my opinion and comapnies that participate in the implementation of Sun's design of future computing (e.g. from Cisco, COMS, ASND, to Segate, LSI, Intel,, to Oracle, Informix, Sybase, to...., and to even Microsoft!) will gain greatly. The technological connectivity has and will continue to result in a global connectivity at human level since because of Sun's technology and vision of future computing the world has become a much smaller place to live thus allowing people to communicate more resulting in mutual financial/intellectual advantages.
The old concept of each person having their own fat contained client machines (namely WIntel platforms) will not be eliminated, however its growth will be much less since it does not cover the broad market that the thin non proprietory technlogy that Java has manifested and will continue to do so. Microsoft's paranoia over Java is understood and I dont blame them for what they have done since they had absolutely no other choice. It is like a bugelere who is surrounded by an entire police department and is about to be shout down regardless of what he does! So it does not matter to him to shoot at the cops or surrounder himself, since he is going to get shot anyway he may as well shoot his gun first!
Microsoft by adopting Java is attempting to hide a lot of its own painful technology beneath it, thus using Java to push for its non-innovative, painful technology. The problem is, for one thing they do not own the Java technology, and secondly by the very idea of hiding their painful technology underneath Java they are missing the whole concept upon which Java was invented: connectivity, portability and thin-ability! I sincerely wish them luck, but I dont see any future in their attempt to continue holding on to their growth. They will continue to grow, however it will be at much lower rate!
If you go back and start reading from the beginning of this thread (which started last January) when the stock price was at around $25-$30, you will realize that nothing has changed, with the exception of the stock price itself! Eight months from now you can come back to all lthese comments people are posting today, and you will realize that nothing has changed then either!! With the exception of the stock price which I believe would be in the high 80's-low 90's!
Regards,
Addi Jamshidi |
