Pat saved the punch for last:
...Which brings us to Rudy, the front-runner. His hope: That Huckabee wins Iowa, McCain wins New Hampshire, Romney wins Michigan, and Thompson or McCain wins South Carolina. Then, after four defeats, he comes roaring back in Florida, grabs the headlines going into Feb. 5, when half the primaries are held, and marches forward to the nomination.
Whoever thought up this strategy is the kind of guy who plays Russian roulette with four bullets in the chamber. The peril of the Rudy strategy is if a Romney, a Huckabee or a McCain wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina and catches a fire no attack ad can put out. Already, Rudy's national lead is vanishing. How he maintains it through December and four straight January losses is, as they say, problematic.
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Still, ya know... it might just work that way for Rudy. :-)
Wonder what happens if it breaks down this way though:
Iowa:
Huck #1, Romney #2 (& Rudy fourth or even fifth....)
New Hampshire:
Romney #1... followed by McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani, all in a bunch... (& Paul beating Thompson....)
Michigan:
Huck & Romney & Giuliani all tied up... (who's got the last minute Mo.?) Paul, McCain, Thompson battle for fourth.
South Carolina:
Huck walks away with a clear #1, Thompson & Romney battle for second and third, Giuliani in fourth position, and Paul and McCain fight for fifth place.
Followed by Florida at the end of Jan.:
Giuliani #1, Huckabee #2, Romney #3... and McCain, Thompson, Paul
This thing could roll on for a long time but, if Huckabee comes in first or second in ALL FOUR of these starting states, I'd expect the momentum to be his at that point... and it might be hard to argue that Rudy had any more momentum then Mitt (to be the main challenger of Huckabee) at that point.
Might need for McCain and Thompson to pull-out before this thing can settle in for the final show-down.... |
