SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : Where the GIT's are going
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Augustus Gloop who wrote (155595)12/12/2007 10:40:35 AM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) of 225578
 
Adjusted for inflation 5 times might become 4 times, adjust for the fact that we are more efficient in terms of real wealth produced per barrel of oil, maybe its 2 or 3 times the drag.

But I'm not trying to dismiss the issue, 2 or 3 times is still huge.

But the 70s and early 80s might have been 2 or 3 times worse than today. Early 80s because real prices where higher (and we needed more oil per real dollar of GDP), 70s (or at least parts of the 70s) because of the shock of sudden drops in oil supply, and also price controls, and lower efficiency.

Those reasons combined with over inflationary monetary policy and growing regulation are one of the reasons that much of the 70s and the beginning of the 80s where a period of relative econonomic difficulty. (High marginal tax rates also contributed but they where not new, having been around since the New Deal)

Markets can always surprise me but I don't think we will see the lows (even in real terms) of the 90s any time soon (largely because of the increased use by China and other developing countries). OTOH I don't think we are headed to the type of total pain we had in the early 80s and parts of the 70s, even if the real price gets that high again, at least not without massive tax increases, price controls, and re-regulation of industries.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News