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Pastimes : Where the GIT's are going

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To: TimF who wrote (155601)	12/12/2007 11:32:16 AM
From: Augustus Gloop	Read Replies (1) of 225578

I think we're in some trouble here and I don't believe we'll need to see higher tax rates for this to play out. Economic downturns all have their own catalysts. What drove the late 70's wont be the exact same driver of this economy. That doesn't mean it wont be as painful though. Toss the numbers aside for a moment. Here are things I think about and you can view me as a simpleton if you wish. Mortgage rates were 6.5% a few months back and home buyers were and still are backing away. I view 6-7% rates as very good but the consumer got used to 4-5%. Did we just create the same scenario that auto makers did by constantly offering rebates. In other words - have we now classically conditioned consumers to only purchase when rates are at almost unheard of levels? If so, we've got a problem because those levels make countries less willing to buy our debt. The interesting thing is that lower rates should help exports but since we outsource our manufacturing base it wont help much. When I need help on my Dell I don't get to talk to Bob! I get to talk to Dr. Bombay in friggin India and that pisses me off. When oil was 20 or less PB did we do the right thing by not making a greater effort to research alternatives AND build known alternatives to fossil fuels? I talk about "vision" a lot when I talk about politics. When prices were low in the 90's we needed that vision and we got none! We continued as if oil prices would remain the same forever. I pin that on the Clinton admin although we haven't had an energy policy in this country since I've been alive. Ooops - the Carter answer - drive 55 and lower your thermostat - yeah - there's defining policy LOL! I see the next President increasing tax rates and thats going to hurt. That could be the spark for some unemployment levels we haven't seen in a long time. I really believe that we're about to slip into a dark period not unlike the late 70's. I fully expect the next Admin in Washington will be a 1 term admin. The confluence of issues might be different from the 70's but I'm thinking the pain could feel very similar. Bookmark this post and get back to me in 2010

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