Its possible we might be in trouble in a certain sense, but if so I think its fairly ordinary economic cycle type of trouble, not a return to the late 70s or worse. In other words we might have a recession.
The interesting thing is that lower rates should help exports but since we outsource our manufacturing base it wont help much.
The US currently manufactures more than in did 10, 20, 30, 40 etc. years ago. 2006 was the all time peak in US manufacturing (2007 isn't over yet, and even when it is the data won't be available right away) Also the US manufactures a lot more than any other country in the world.
See
cafehayek.typepad.com
China has lost 7 times the manufacturing jobs the United Stats has from 1995 to 2002.
Message 23922087
"...The United States makes more manufactured goods today than at any time in history, as measured by the dollar value of production adjusted for inflation -- three times as much as in the mid-1950s, the supposed heyday of American industry. Between 1977 and 2005, the value of American manufacturing swelled from $1.3 trillion to an all-time record $4.5 trillion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
With less than 5 percent of the world's population, the United States is responsible for almost one-fourth of global manufacturing, a share that has changed little in decades. The United States is the largest manufacturing economy by far. Japan, the only serious rival for that title, has been losing ground. China has been growing but represents only about one-tenth of world manufacturing..."
reason.com
Message 23855339 |
