Immigration reshapes politics everywhere
By: Jim VandeHei and John F. Harris
December 13, 2007 politico.com
If there was any doubt about the fearsome power of an anti-Illegal immigration message in American politics this election cycle, Republican Bob Latta drove a stake through it on Tuesday.
Latta, running in a special election for a suburban Toledo-based House district, crafted a message — echoed by party officials — that high-lighted illegal immigrants who get government-funded health care.
He won by 14 points. Democrats and Republicans alike credit the immigration message for the big margin.
It’s already clear this result is no anomaly. For all the commentary about illegal immigration, the full depth of the issue has yet to sink in to most of this year’s election analysis. Simply put: No other issue has ricocheted with more unpredictable impact across more races at more levels.
So far, the politicians of both parties seared by immigration politics far outnumber those like Latta who have benefited. This issue is the political equivalent of juggling with loaded guns.
Let’s start counting victims:
• The congressional effort to pair border enforcement with a pathway to citizenship for millions of illegal immigrants was devastating to Republicans.
House Minority Leader John A. Boehner told Politico in a recent interview that Republican fundraising “sucks” since this summer, almost entirely because conservatives were livid over President Bush’s bid for comprehensive reform that smacked of amnesty to many activists. RNC officials tell us their direct mail money dried up — with some regular donors writing nasty things about illegal immigration as the reason they were stiffing the party.
• John McCain’s presidential campaign has plenty of problems, but current and former operatives of his campaign say the biggest factor in his 2007 nosedive was the leading role he played as an advocate of the bipartisan Senate reform effort.
• Rudy Giuliani has been forced to fend off attacks about declaring New York City a “sanctuary” for illegal immigrants when he was mayor.
• Bush once believed that no matter how much he infuriated Democrats, he enjoyed a “floor” of hard-core conservative support. But that floor collapsed in significant measure due to illegal immigration politics.
• Even Hillary Rodham Clinton is not immune. The Democratic front-runner’s worst moment of the campaign came when she suggested she supported driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants — only to oppose the idea days later amid a nasty backlash.
The experience has radically changed the GOP approach to immigration.
Now, with the exception of McCain and few others, Republicans talk only about border security and cracking down on illegal immigrants. Many GOP strategists are talking about immigration as the bedrock of the 2008 campaigns.
In the short run, the appeal is obvious. Republicans came close to winning an October special election in a strongly Democratic Massachusetts district with a strong anti-illegal immigration message that anticipated the Ohio race.
Long-term, the risks are obvious as the significance of the Hispanic vote continues to rise. But polling shows clearly why GOP politicians are choosing to live in the moment — and worry tomorrow about tomorrow.
A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll completed in early December found that while only 6 percent of Democrats say illegal immigration is “the top priority” for candidates, fully 23 percent of Republicans viewed it as “the top priority.”
Only national security issues concerned GOP voters more than illegal immigration, according to the poll.
“How high it is on the list of Republican priorities right now is remarkable. And it’s really not on the landscape of the Democratic side, despite the fact that illegal immigration is an issue that divides both parties,” said Michael Dimock, associate director of research for the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
A late October study by senior Democratic strategists Stan Greenberg, Al Quinlan and James Carville found that for independents — roughly a third of voters — the “top issue underlying the discontent is ‘our borders’ having been ‘left unprotected and illegal immigration’ growing.”
The issue was cited by four in 10 independents, which was nearly double the rate at which independents referenced the war in Iraq.
For now, however, the debate over illegal immigration is largely isolated to the Republican campaigns.
Republican Rep. Peter Roskam spent an hour one recent Saturday afternoon greeting voters outside a Jewel grocery store in Wood Dale, Ill. The message was overwhelmingly unified: Crack down on illegal immigration.
“It completely eclipses Iraq,” Roskam said.
Illegal immigration is regularly the first topic raised during town hall meetings or conference calls with constituents, said Ohio Rep. Steve Chabot. “It’s the first thing they want to talk about.” |
