LOOKING AHEAD FROM 1999.....my stockhouse interview exerpts
Wolanchuk is calling for $20/barrel crude oil and a DJIA that reaches 16,600, but just in the short-term. Longer term, Wolanchuk is calling for a DJIA that reaches between 40,000 and 60,000. ( Note: This interview was conducted late last week. )
If Wolanchuk were a crank, his advice would be worthless. He has a huge following and many profitably trade on his advice. This may be one of the more outrageous and entertaining interviews you will read this year. Just remember, he has probably won more Market Timing awards than anyone else. What if he's right? Let us know your thoughts on BullBoards. Go there now!
SH: So you got lucky with your last call on oil?
Wolanchuk: Excuse me, if it was luck, then it would be a 50-50 proposition, and I would only be right 50% of the time in Timer Digest, now wouldn't I? Come on.
SH: What is your latest opinion on oil?
Wolanchuk: Oh, oil's going to the moon.
SH: You mean it's not going to correct here?
Wolanchuk: Well it might correct because it ran into resistance and everybody woke up this morning and discovered oil. The lows should be in, but of course it will not go up in a straight line.
SH: Well they say there's going to be trouble at the $15 level..
Wolanchuk: Yeah, well that's the resistance, that's the halfway point between that big high that we had a number of months ago and the recent low. We're going to the moon.
SH: Really? It's going above $20 a barrel?
Wolanchuk: Oh yeah.
SH: Above $20 a barrel!!!!!?????
Wolanchuk: Yes sir. Above $20. You know, this is the same kind of reaction that I got in 1987 when the Dow was at 1,600, after we crashed, and I said we're going back up above 3,000. And I got these astounded questions.
SH: We're not saying impossible, it's just contrary to what every analyst has been saying today.
Wolanchuk: Well of course! If every analyst was right, then there wouldn't be any Wolanchuk would there? But you've got a huge economic boom coming that is going to propel all the commodities through the roof.
SH: And gold?
Wolanchuk: Gold, oil and lumber.
SH: What's a short term target, let's say, from now to June on the price of oil?
Wolanchuk: Oh now we're getting off of timing. It has nothing to do with timing. I can guess, but it doesn't have anything to do with what my job is. That's to buy the bottom and sell the top. How long it takes to get from A to Z is not important, unless you're in a hurry. We put on a position and just ride it like a bucking bronco. It's gonna buck back and forth all the way up to above $20.
SH: The uniform opinion seems to be that oil prices and gold prices won't rally until the second half of the year.
Wolanchuk: They're not market analysts. They're just guessers.
SH: So you think the rally will continue through the spring and the summer?
Wolanchuk: The rally will continue through your lifetime until oil gets so expensive that you can't drive your cars anymore. You'll have to go out and buy the replacement cars, and those are electric cars. Remember thirty years ago, you could drive a racecar on the street and have a drag race from any stop light. You can't do that today. The streets are too crowded. And what's everybody driving? They're driving these gas-guzzler-yuppie- assault vehicles. And Ford's building one: it's 4 tons and 9 yards long. And they are getting bigger and bigger and bigger. The economy is just going into this eruption. Everybody has a fleet of cars and SUVs and all kinds of things. Gas is cheap, but it's going to get more expensive. Eventually the cycle will complete itself and react. Instead of having itty-bitty little cars, we're going to have an army of monstrous gas-guzzlers. The end result will be a switch to electric powered transportation. And that's why GM through Delphi spent millions with Valence Technology [NASDAQ - VLNC] in research and development in getting the next generation battery technology ready for General Motors' big plunge into electric vehicles. And that's why Valence Technology is the buy of a lifetime. They've got the next generation battery technology all wrapped up. This tells me that there's something bigger afloat than what meets the public eye. It's public knowledge that Delphi put a lot of money into Valence, but they all forget about that. California leads the country in changing the environment by having everybody driving electric vehicles in the years ahead, and it's just going to happen. The whole world is going to be swamped by these huge gas- guzzlers. It's happening before our very eyes. I live in a city ( and ) you can't even move it's so crowded. Twenty years ago I could drive my race car and go drag racing on the street, and now I've got to wait until 3 in the morning to do it. Then end result should be a massive move to efficient electric vehicles.
SH: After our last interview, you were very accurate about gold going higher?
Wolanchuk: With a worldwide economic boom of monster proportions dead ahead, you're going to have a huge inflationary spiral. The price of everything is going to go crazy on the upside. You've heard the expression "Mongol Hordes?" Those hordes of Cossacks - that's what's going to fuel the world wide explosion of free enterprise, because all those people are emerging from this huge socialist/communist order and turning into untold millions of big spending capitalists.
SH: Are we talking next year two years from now, five years from now or are we talking about gold breaking out of its trading range this year?
Wolanchuk: Gold is on its way. All you've got to do is be long the metal. You don't really care how long it takes because between now and the time it reaches wherever it's going to go, most of us are going to be dead. Just like when people bought it at $30/ounce in the 20's, most of those people are dead. But they were all worried, "When is gold going to do this and do that?" But it's not important. Some people are going to live longer than others and take advantage of whatever it does, but the important thing is direction.
SH: But you said it was at the end of a 17-year bear market. Are we looking at sideways trading for the next 5-10 years?
Wolanchuk: No, it was basically sideways for the last 17 years. It dropped down hard and then went sideways.
SH: Are you talking above $400/ounce sometime in the next 2 years?
Wolanchuk: I don't understand why this focus on 2 years, 1 year, 7 years.
SH: Well, one could say in the year 2025, gold will be.
Wolanchuk: In the foreseeable future, I see gold back up above $800 an oz.
SH: How do you define foreseeable?
Wolanchuk: I don't think much about that. When I said we were going to the moon in August 1987, I thought maybe we'd see a 10,000 by 1996. So it's happening here 2 or 3 years later than I expected it. The last ten years went by so fast nobody cares about that. If they stayed long, they're happy. But if they buy something and say, "Well, it's gonna take 10 years," then they'll be less inclined to buy it than if somebody was convinced it was going to happen 2 years from now.
SH: Do you see gold possibly going to where Goldman Sachs projects, which is something like sub-$250, in the foreseeable future?
Wolanchuk: It's my opinion wire-houses don't know anything about markets. And if they do, the pronouncements that they make will be for the sole benefit for their back rooms. The pronouncements that wire-houses put out are to get the public to do things that their back room wants to take advantage of. So if a Goldman Sachs puts out a public announcement that gold is going to go down to $250 dollars, it's my opinion that they want their customers to sell. Why? Because the back room wants to own the stuff.
SH: So you don't see gold moving in that direction?
Wolanchuk: Gold is going to the moon. Gold is sold out. Argentina bailed out of gold. They bought bonds - right at the peak in bonds and right at the bottom in gold. The Swiss did the same thing. There's nobody in this gold market except probably the U.S. government. They always do things right. Just like when they told people, "We're going to be making gold coins and offer them to the public 12 months from now." That's when gold was $400 an ounce. So they ran gold up to $500 an ounce just in time to dump all the gold on the public. The public was convinced that gold was headed a lot higher. And of course the public bought it hook, line, and sinker and the rest is history. They ( the public ) loved it ( gold ) at the top, and they hate it at the bottom.
SH: By the end of the year, will gold be higher or lower?
Wolanchuk: Well sure it's going to be higher. But don't ask me where it's going to be in 12 months. Nobody can answer that question |
