HOLY WHEAT KERNELS: USDA's shock & awe 2007/8 ending wheat stocks report Dec 11, combined with Australia's second year of drought, continue to impact global supplies, and prices...
Wheat Returns to All-Time Highs on Supply Shortfall
By Jon A. Nones
11 Dec 2007 at 02:37 PM GMT-05:00
St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Wheat prices have gained 20% in just three weeks, returning to highs hit in late October. The rally has been fuelled largely by trade expectations of a drop in 2007/08 U.S. wheat ending stocks. On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) did not disappoint wheat bulls with its supply/demand report for grains.
The USDA lowered its estimate for 2007-08 U.S. ending stocks by 32 million bushels to 280 million bushels, a 10% drop, which would be the lowest level in 60 years. Inventories in storage will fall 32% from a year ago to 8.49 million tonnes by May 31. U.S. wheat exports are now expected to total 1,175 million bussels, but the U.S. has already sold at least 88% of that figure.
In a market report today, Elaine Kub of DTN said these adjustments came after 26 fiery weeks of wheat exports, when over 90% of USDA's previous export sales projection was sold.
“Volatile conditions have set up the markets for quick movement, so be prepared for large initial gains followed by dynamic action throughout the day,” she noted.
In mid-October, the USDA reported that 2007-08 U.S. wheat ending stocks would fall to 307 million bushels, reflecting lower production and a sharp rise in exports this year.
Today’s report puts U.S. ending stocks below 300 million bushels for the first time since the 1947-48 crop year.
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COMMENTARY:
I was a wheat and cattle farm business manager in the late
60s until early 1980s...
Now, I live where sugar beets and yellow/red onions are grown, primarily, with some SRWinter wheat tossed into the planting mix.
Onions and Sugar Beets produce more income per acre than any irrigated wheat field can dream of producing per acre...no wonder wheat stalks/stocks are low...(pun intended...)
G_T |
