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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (29314)12/18/2007 11:12:56 PM
From: Asymmetric  Read Replies (1) of 78748
 
Dunno about Chicos and Talbots, but I ruled out
Coldwater. What's the point of expanding if you're
increasing overall revenue, but not making any money
for all your pain and efforts. Short interest in the
stock has increased from 20% on Sept 5 when the stock
fell to $15 and change, to 24% today. Last two earnings
reports were atrocious which is why the stock is down
71% in last 6 months. Management went from forecasting
a small profit, to flat earnings, to forecast a 11-12
per share loss, which they beat in their earnings
report on Nov 28 with a loss of only 7 cents. I don't
think you should get points for beating your own low ball
guidance from 3 months prior.

Dennis Pence, the guiding hand over the company since
it's founding retired on Oct 30. Don't know much about
the new guy, Griesmer, except that he's got some years
on him in retail.

An old article in the Spokane Spokesman-Review describes
Coldwater Creeks’s humble beginnings:

“Pence and his former wife, Ann Pence, founded Coldwater Creek
in 1984, after making a quality-of-life move to Sandpoint from
New Jersey. He was a former marketing manager for Sony Corp.
She was a freelance advertising copywriter. . . . The couple
arrived in Sandpoint on Christmas Eve in 1983 with $40,000 in
savings. They launched a small mail-order business from their
apartment, exhausting their savings and a line of credit before
Coldwater Creek finally turned a profit in 1985.”

They built CWTR into a $1 billion dollar company...before this
latest downturn. How many people can say they've done something
like that?

Oh well.

- A.
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