<<Now if Brinker were this savvy guru that could predict the future he would be able to have forecast this housing bubble/ credit crisis which if we are to have a recession will indeed be the major cause.>>
--He CAN'T predict the future. He can make an educated guess about it which is better than most people's. I don't know of any guru, talking head, newsletter writer, etc., who predicted the housing bubble/credit crisis. Do you?>>
Yes, I believe the guy, Gary Shilling did and is still saying it is going to end very badly. While I don't carry a brief for him either, when he would be on Kudlow talking about how this would play out, he would be told by the other people there speaking like Brinker "the economy is fine". They would then say "and this will be confined to the subprime"--and he would "no it wont". Well he was absolutely correct in spotting the bubble before anyone that I know of...he was absolutely correct in saying it was a very very big deal in the credit markets before anyone I know of....and we can only hope he is wrong about the dire consequences he claims will come as this spills over. Now I hope he is wrong...but certainly he has been correct to a fault thus far. Brinker didn't see any of it coming and was very dismissive of the dangers that much brighter people have recognized.
<< In fact I think Brinker became more bullish on real estate as the bubble grew rather than less so.>>
--I don't believe that is true. But I suppose I could be wrong. -:) >>
Yeah you are wrong. Brinker used to talk about real estate as a bad place for money and talked about home equity as pretty much meaningless in a financial sense. In more recent times he was much more interested and supportive in real estate investments. Now that is not to say he was egging on the condo flippers but he was recognizing the worth of rental real estate in a portfolio, giving support to people buying vacation homes and upgrading their home and using it as a measure of personal wealth. In days past he would pretty much diss real estate investments and push people toward liquid investments. He would call all personal real estate issues "quality of life" decisions and not factor it into personal finance.
<< If we are to enter a recession I am certain that Brinker will blame the mortgage lenders and the funds that packaged the loans and the government and claim that nobody could have forecast it.>>
--That won't do him any good. He knows all about this stuff now, and he's STILL saying "no recession." If we get a recession, then he will have been wrong. And feel free to save this post to your computer. -:)>>
So you think that Bob Brinker will stand up like a man and say he was wrong??? LOL I want what you are drinking! My point is that Brinker will TWIST THE FACTS to appear that he was way smarter than the villans that he will pick out and crucify for having caused the problem. He's like a little pipsqueak in the financial world that has no relevance to policy makers or the major financial media. So flying under the radar he makes himself a "giant" and pretends to always have the answers (or knew the answer if only people would have listened to him) to the goobers and geezers on afternoon weekend radio.
If he was on a show where he had to answer questions supporting his views or they had a tape of what he had said previously; he would be laughed off the stage as a clueless flip flopper. As it is--except on obscure boards on the internet there is no record of Brinker's positions. He simply looks at what happens, pontificates in Brinkereze about how he knew this and that and "they" didn't. And his "predictions" (an equivocal carefully crafted bunch of words to be spun later) are since 1988 built on sand and can be shifted easily to accomodate market/economic activity.
<< It reminds me of his very slick (though bogus) words to describe what a great entry point he picked for gold LOL.>>
--He did no such thing! You got some bad info from someone!>>
No Octavian I've heard this a couple times with my own ears and I don't listen to much of the guy. As you know Brinker would beat up people for years about buying gold or gold funds claiming it was dead money and his demeanor made it seem anyone wanting to do so was downright silly. As you know Gold outperformed Brinker and many pointed that out along with his other very unfortunate claim that energy wasn't a good sector to concentrate in. Indeed while off topic but related I remember very well when oil was 10 bucks a barrel in about 99 how he made fun of a caller for even considering investing in energy stocks--they were "dead money" and "there is no future in oil" because we don't depend on it in our economy any more". Next to telling the gal he wouldn't buy Google at the IPO; I can't think of worse prediction.
At any rate some time back after seeing gold far exceed his performance when a caller had asked about gold; Brinker said something like "If an investor wanted a little bit of gold as a hedge I would use the gold ETF." He went on to say "Now that is not my recommendation but if a person is wanting to invest in gold with a small portion of a portfolio I would use the gold shares ETF".
Now when a gold question comes up....Brinker says. "Well since we recommended the gold ETF as a hedge to investors wanting it right here that ETF has gone up xxx%%" And repeats it three or four times mentioning the gains and "since we recommended it right here"...... A flim flam trick for sure..but effective in fooling a few goobers and geezers I'd imagine.
<<So you know that Brinker has no clue what the economy will be doing at this time next year.>>
--When a bunch of economists get together to predict the economy in Barron's roundtable, do you think THEY have "no clue?" They tend to disagree a lot, so, obviously, some are always wrong. But I would say they have much more of a "clue" than we average investors. I personally believe Brinker has just as much of a "clue" as those people, possibly more. I certainly would take his opinion vs. theirs, based on my experience.>>
So you think Brinker, a radio show hack who has no real academic or on the job credentials and simply pontificates but doesn't have to analyze data and make policy is superior to the economists in predicting the future of the economy. :) You are the kind of thinker that he preys on. One that is impressed by equivocation before and 100% perfect hindsight to criticize after whatever happens.
<<If you talk in generalities, position yourself for success and spin anything that you can spin that doesn't go along with the success you can fool some people into believing you are a seer.>>
--He's not a seer. He makes no claim to be a seer. Only you, who want to dream up things to criticize him for, have ever made that claim for him.>>
BUT like the fake faith healer acting falsely humble saying "my healing powers come from God" but want's you to believe he is "special"...Brinker will use false modesty giving credit to the person who follows his advice but making it very clear that he is "special". It's a trick; I'm surprised you don't realize it for what it is.
Brinker's own words under his alias pimping for himself claim that only he can predict the market and that he hoped to send a bulletin to subscribers and not be on the radio and they would be left to "fend for themselves. " You see like the faith healer the false modesty doesn't hide the fact he fosters and indeed sells total dependence. |
