The reason that I am in Quidel:
1) Many of the human diseases and the body's responses are now being tracked down at a molecular level. This doesn't just include the obvious things like H. Pylori, but also risk for heart disease (did you know that Herpes is probably a significant risk factor? - although I can't remember which strain), Alzheimer's, cancers, ... . This is a trend that started to gather momentum maybe 10-15 years ago, but is only really starting to roll.
2) Once the diseases have been traced to this level, it is fairly straightforward to build rapid diagnostic tests for them - at least compared to developing treatments. (BTW - many of the rapid diagnostic tests not only detect antibodies, but use their own antibodies to detect whatever it is that they are trying to detect.) This process doesn't yet qualify as a branch of engineering, but within another 5-10 years it probably will.
3) In many cases catching the disease early via a cheap blood test is much, much better (either for cost or patient survival) than detecting it only after symptoms show up. HMO's will want to use the tests for the first reason, and individuals for the second.
4) Quidel seems to be a good company in this field, and when I bought it in July at 3.125, it was CHEAP. (I'd say that right now it is fairly priced, although still very cheap compared to most other biotechs.)
Thus, this is a company I plan to hold onto for the long term (5 yrs?) unless something changes in my basic evaluation of the industry or the company.
Clark |
