I wonder which it is, 450ppm or 500ppm. <The natural background level of CO2 is 273 parts per million (ppm) but human activities have pushed this up to 379ppm. At some time before 2030, greenhouse gas levels are predicted to reach the equivalent of 450ppm.
At this level, said Pope’s graph, global temperature rises of 2C are 80% certain. If CO2 levels reach 550ppm, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of respected scientists has said they will, probably before 2030, then there is a 70% chance of the global rise exceeding 3C. >
It took 100 years to go from 270ppm to 380ppm. Fossil carbon production has boomed over the last half century so most of that was during that period.
"Background level of CO2" is a copy of "background radiation" which is obviously part of the linguistic strategy of denigrating CO2 as though it's hazardous to our health. There is in fact NO natural "background" level of CO2 that is fixed and certainly not to 3 significant figures such as 273 ppm. It used to be that "natural background CO2" was 2000 ppm and all points in between.
To get another 100 ppm over the 450ppm is a LOT of CO2. With only 22 years to do it. We need to increase CO2 production to get an increase of 5 ppm a year to achieve that goal.
70ppm increase is all we have achieved in 50 years. staffwww.fullcoll.edu That's not even 2ppm per year. At that rate we'll only get to 420ppm by 2030.
With the claims that Peak Oil is upon us, we are going to have to get serious about digging coal and gas to keep production up and increase the rate of production.
We will have to get the oceans to stop absorbing it, which it will do a little if it warms up; but that's a major project.
By 2037 we'll be at Peak Oil and Peak People. As population reduces, it'll be harder to keep up CO2 production. Especially as technology continues to improve and people need less carbon for a unit of GDP.
Already, over 30 years, the GDP per CO2 emitted has zoomed up in many countries.
When we get to 450ppm, we can start worrying about whether the trends are looking bad or not. Until then, I think CO2 being increased is a good thing, overall.
If CO2 production is a problem and we are heading for 500ppm or 1000ppm, then it's easy enough to tax carbon combustion instead cyberspace, food, incomes and other things.
If CO2 production is still a problem, it can be liquefied and poured to the bottom of oceans.
Mqurice |
