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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: John Vosilla who wrote (97899)12/20/2007 1:15:26 AM
From: Archie MeetiesRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
Nice analogy, maybe there is some resemblence to 2001-02. Everything gets thrown out, shot. Questions asked later. Part of this year end markdown has been that a lot of traders have just closed shop for the year. The market has suffered a lack of buyers more than panicked selers.

One way things could shake out is rotation out of commodities, energy, and big cap tech into midcaps, exporters, financials. Another way is that we stay range bound, gradually washing out the junk and letting the better stuff float up through '08.

Also, the amount of insider buying when we retested the lows was high, especially when you consider that nov/dec is usualy a seasonal peak in insider selling. You also have to struggle to find companies that are not buying their shares back. I give less weight to the latter, but the balance sheets of some of the stuff they are throwing out are remarkable.
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