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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers

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To: CusterInvestor who wrote (54455)12/20/2007 1:33:09 PM
From: Mr. Aloha  Read Replies (1) of 78410
 
Yes, actually Aug. 16. Hopefully MMG will avoid joining all the rest, and this is a successful retest of the low and a nice double bottom/higher low.

This has been a brutal market for juniors, but I think things turn very soon given the seasonality, the end of tax loss selling, and lots of buy signals: goldstockbull.com

Perhaps the most reliable buy signal for the mining sector is the Gold/XAU ratio, which just hit a buy signal:

hussmanfunds.com
“To put some historical context on this measure, since 1974, the Gold/XAU ratio has been greater than 5.0 about 15% of the time. When the ratio has been this high, the XAU has followed with annualized gains of 89.6%, on average – a figure that remains high even if the data is split into multiple samples. When the ratio has been greater than 4.0, the XAU has followed with average annualized gains of 27.4% (though the finer profile of returns has been sensitive to other conditions such as interest rates, economic trends, and inflation). In contrast, when the ratio has been less than 3.0 (meaning that the gold stocks are very elevated relative to the actual metal), the XAU has declined at an annualized rate of -36.6%, on average.

Here's the Gold/XAU ratio chart, showing it just hit over 5.0:

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