Hello Pezz, Today’s Report (longish, on shorts, top secret, and for your eyes only, because it is a truthful intelligence briefing, unlike the warm bull excreta we have been coldly fed over the past 7+ calculating years):
(1) There have been quite a few economic reports crossing the screen, about this shopping season and that employment market, or some confidence measures, and GDP growth, generally generated in Chicago, New York and Washington DC; all nonsense to be faded, because they are all ignorant, or moronic, or lying, or respectively. I leave the categorization to the authors themselves, for I believe in the freedom of choice.
In local currency terms, Zimbabwe has the highest GDP growth on the planet and the strongest stock market in the galaxy.
Do not believe any and all things THEY say.
(2) The Super SIV idea, a parlor trick when conceived to saved the bacon and bonus of systemically rotten bankers, and now simply a badly conceived fraud exposed for all to see, is either DoA or KIA, and each crony capitalist financial institution is left to fend for self, with promised “as long as necessary” marketwatch.com help by the FED. It will not make any difference, for either the system will collapse by a combination of bad debt, imploded derivatives, exploded counter-parties, terminated credit lines, pinched off jugular, poisoned liquidity, and/or failed lines of credit, now, or later.
Resistance is futile.
(3) A lot of deals have been announced by strategically competing international entities (call them the New Sovereigns) to buy into the cracked financial gear works of the Empire, in exchange for fiat cash to be debauched by the same Empire, before J6P citizens of the Empire gets a chance to fend themselves against institution of capital controls in the name of national emergency and/or gold confiscation under the ruse of anti-terror, and before J6P is forced to buy the stock market so as to try to offset officialdom printing for and by the people, courtesy of the blessed Hilary or Obama or another interfering but freely elected spendthrift idiot. The Chinese and Arabs are joining the Jews and Anglos and Italians and whomever else in New York, getting ready to party hardy, Edgar A Poe style. The New Sovereigns are genetically weaving themselves into the chromo-lattice of the Empire, and in such ways (energy and goods and credit for same) so that any forced separation will be fatal to the host, courtesy of the Japanese of the land of cheap savings pool.
The Empire is selling itself CHEAP, continuously, for cheaply extracted oil and cheaply manufactured goods.
(4) Chrysler fessed up, early, before mass confession by the residual industry of the Empire, “We are operationally bankrupt” money.cnn.com , signaling to the New Sovereigns, “SOB (save our bacon), buy us and ship the equipment back to your own country where workers are diligent and thrifty, family values strong, money more rather than less real, and true economic growth results in genuine wage increase, even in face of more honestly reported and high inflation, and we will hire some lying Washington PR firm to market the looting as good for the environment of the Empire and in the best interest of J6P”.
Chrysler got here because it chose to bail General Motors out of that bankrupting company’s GMAC position. Chrysler is now endangering its master, the fund named Cerberus, and should it do so biblically, then it will in effect bring close to fatal harm to the entire monetary system, either before or after the FED bailout, of the whole galaxy. May the Force be with Chrysler, or may it find a new home in Nanjing, physically, and Shanghai Stock Exchange, financially.
The END-GAME is in sight.
(5) I am drinking Starbucks Frappucino again, iced, as before, to help the Empire to balance its terms of trade in manufactured goods, and I am speculating on the long side of the Empire’s currency, to bet against the nations of Italy, Spain, Greece, Japan and such not as strong economies. So, be cheered that I have an interest in your currency’s wellbeing, at least at this juncture in competitive devaluation.
Competitive devaluation, per script of 1929 and all times before and since, is not a sound strategy, but a national imperative.
(6) The credit default insurers will certainly blow up, either possibly before or surely after the inevitable bail out by the FED, and when they do, all that they have certainly insured but have truly failed to (i) price correctly, and (ii) reserve properly, will inexorably implode, setting off either an avalanche of counter-party disappearances or a perfect storm of financial crisis, monetary dire happenings, and officialdom muck ups.
Focus mind on possibility of Financial Katrina centered on spendthrift New York City and mismanaged by the same worthless lot in bankrupt Washington DC. The fix will be higher taxes, lower spending, higher inflation, lower asset worth, as in each and every time.
(7) Yes, the home mortgages will totally explode, because the homes are not worth half of what they transacted for, adjusted for wage growth, and accounting for property tax load, and keeping in perspective of demographic cliff, and relative to genuine savings of the liquid sort.
Yes, corporate debt will absolutely implode, because the corporations are not useful.
Yes, municipal bonds will default, because the home owners and the corporations within their jurisdictions are less than good for their words.
Yes, the states will go begging to Washington, because they had been counting on wealth that is false, puffed up, or else not actually there.
Yes, the FED will have to bail everyone out, until it cannot bail anymore, when its supposedly secret but laughably naïve weapon, the printing press (invented by Chinese), can no longer take in the ink (a consumable patented by Chinese), to print (a process discovered by Chinese) on paper (another clever good by the Chinese civilization) money (a schema not coincidentally and again innovated by the inscrutable Chinese) anymore; that is to say when the bailing effort degenerate into the Zimbabwe Solution and is nearing the Argentine Outcome, a processed that had taken place in China countless times. For this is why the good Madam WU Yi can lecture the disingenuous Mr. Paulson on the global economic ill brought on by the spendthrift and bankrupting Empire.
To quote someone or other, “Gold is for optimist; buy canned food”.
(8) Now, onward to the trades:
Following on to my earlier wager that ought to be in alignment with the Empire’s wellbeing Message 24042769 and within its confines Message 24058216 and in tune with its game script Message 24063065 and in alignment with the Force Message 24096776 , in preparation for the endgame Message 24153064 , I …
(i) Shorted SKF April Call strike 110 finance.yahoo.com at 10.40 average price, a derivative;
(ii) Shorted SKF April Put strike 90 finance.yahoo.com at 7.90, another derivative;
(iii) Fully realizing that SKF finance.yahoo.com is itself yet another derivative on the Empire’s wellbeing, being a negative wager against the health and continued survival by the financial institutions so very important to the uninterrupted operation of the war machine, on the inverse side, and so a Call and a Put, when shorted, is for less or more happiness, respectively, or some such convolution, or the other way around, I think :0)
(iv) Do not have confirmation yet, but believe I purchased some Sugar on the London Exchange etfsecurities.com at USD 15.55, because drinking Starbucks ice coffee reminded me of its ingredients that are all rising in price when not adjusted for food and energy input in any hedonistic manner or chained dollar way, and because the spendthrift, ignorant, and bankrupting Congress, comprised of small town ex-bankers and third-generation used car dealers and small time lawyers and elected by your people for your people figured wrongly that the way to energy salvation is through jacking up the price of sugar so that it can be burned as a fuel - what next? burn houses and T-bills and brand new tires off of piled high and deep car inventories?
You do like sugar, do you not?
I am just going with the awful flow, to generate some undeserved gain, off of financial innovations, derivative mess, and global monetary friction, 24/7/365, enabled by my geewhizbang liquid-cooled ohwhoawee one terabyte assisted gollygee twin mother board, ohmygod duel graphics card pushed computer, to pay for expected holiday expenses.
(9) Recommendation: BUYGOLD because it keeps better than canned food, and is for optimists.
Chugs, TJ
P.S. 2007 YTD gain is at 28.49%, which is almost but not quite 30%, which is not too shabby. I will have to work out the game plan for 2008 soon, and it will be tough, as usual, else would be easy, which would be too easy.
The premise underlying any game plan will have to account for the embedded leverage, since when this institution cubes the derivatives that had been ready squared, after having been leveraged earlier still at either and or 5, 10, 12, 26 times equity, it would be leverage that must be accounted for.
Suggestion: we have not been here before, and we are not really equipped to survive the navigation. |
