Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (72656)	12/22/2007 6:35:09 PM
From: Mike Johnston	Read Replies (1) of 116555

Hyperinflation is not likely in the US but deflation is even less likely IMHO despite the probability of a recession before long I agree when it comes to deflation, I would peg the odds at close to nil. Hyperinflation, although it is more likely than deflation and I certainly consider it a possibility, I do not expect it yet, only because its definition implies inflation of at least 300% a year and I don't expect things to become that bad. I would agree regarding stagflation, except that describing what awaits us as "stagflation" will not suffice. Stagflation implies very slow or 0 growth and inflation of 10-15%. A more probable outcome is few years of negative real growth and inflation in the range of 20-30%, followed later on by an increase to 30-50% with a short spike to 80-100%. I wish there was a word to describe annual inflation in a range of 30-100%, which is what I think will be experienced in the US. It is way past stagflation, way past chronic inflation, but not quite hyperinflation.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next