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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis With Charts

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From: MACD X	12/25/2007 5:37:57 PM
	of 6865

Dow prediction for 2008, sideways to down stockcharts.com the chart above is the Dow prediction for this site for 2008. The chart as is the S&P, and Russell are all symetrical and have completed thier moves, This suggests down to sideways markets for 2008 and actually all the way to 2010 before the next 4 year cycle takes place. The top in 2000 has likely fooled many investors that follow the four year cycle in that they were expecting a top in 2002 with actually turned out to be a bottom. 2002 was the expected bottom with the 1998 asian crisis marking the last bottom in 1998. 2004 was the last top that actually turned out to be the start of a consolidation and not a down turn at all but none the less the effects of the top were felt. that brings us to 2008 with a chart pattern that is symetrical in all three markets leading me to before a meaningful top is in place. Sentiment is extremely bearish which argues the top may only be a top or start of consolidation as was the 2004 top. But if you believe in alternation of correction a zig zag may mark the move down to within the yellow box. This may not occurr in 2008 but may take as long a 2 years which argues the case for a two year consolidation correction of the five waves that appear to be in place. So my prediction for the Dow is that the top is in and there will be no new high in 2008 and that the market trades sideways to down with the possibility of a 20% bear market. A test of the old highs of 11700 is very likely.

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