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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Mike Johnston who wrote (89901)12/26/2007 2:41:09 PM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Yes the two would have to correlate with some lag time and adjustment for micro markets out of balance due to easy credit and overbuilding on the housing side. Interesting how this plays out with rapid broad monetary growth going global and the reserve currency dollar already very weak in our worst housing downturn ever in a peak oil environment.. Perhaps 1973-75 could be a history lesson for gold versus housing versus oil versus MZ? Bart where are you today?

'Yes the dollar has been trashed, prices down 50%+ and some Europeans and Canadians will buy but it doesn't change the big picture short term and now the longer term over say 10 years looks crystal clear to me. We have much more to go to before this current leg is done,and oversupply/foreclosures absorbed but when this is over I believe very high real inflation is what will drive property prices back up again in a major way but before then most builders will have gone under and very few will believe in property as a good investment... So we are now in the second leg of a massive transfer of wealth. The suckers/speculators of 2004-05 holding the bag were years early on the real deal,, sort of like the tech mania of 1999. They are finding out overpriced, overleveraged property declining in value that doesn't cash flow is like a living hell.. If they had any experience or educated themselves on prior downturns I'm sure they'd have been playing defense as I was during the mania..'

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