@Nico - DRAM
I have already said this weeks ago - the worse DRAM goes, the
better for us. Actually there are many unknowns when it comes
to CAPEX plans for 2008. Many have cut their spending plans
but its my feeling, that more cuts will follow once the Q4
numbers are finally out. It seems that Samsung hasn't said
much and I have seen analyst predictions of only 10% less
for whole 2008 compared to 2007. Capex is always a moving
target, but if Q1 pricing will not change to the better and
FAST, we will learn much more after Q1.
We can't connect DRAM/NAND directly with NOR, but if these
business segment move to much much worse P&L numbers for the
big guys, the appeal for NOR activities and more pricing
battles will shrink SIGNIFICANTLY! One target is QI - we
could read the news from yesterday with Macronix. I don't
expect much here and I expect much less, if I look at
QIs performance. Q4 will be a desaster and Q1 looks more the
same way. I can't imagine they will do new things in that ugly
environment. Micron looks very similar. Their NAND progress
is very good and they ramp as fast as they can, but the losses
grew and grew. And they had the benefit, that their quarter
ended already in november. Again, if prices don't rise fast
and now, the next quarter for MU (dec-feb) will look VERY
terrible. It has to be seen how the other 3 big guys (Hynix,
Samsung, Toshiba) performed in Q4 - we will know this in a
few days - but I don't expect nice numbers here. Toshiba and
Hynix are no NOR comp., but I hope that Samsung will perform
bad (DRAM/NAND) too (too bad they have other big business
segments) -> so they will cut CAPEX for 2008 significantly.
Yesterday we have talked a bit about Newco. Someone pointed
out, that Intel and/or STM could let their parts "die". I
don't think this will happen, but imagine your closing these
segments and your able to sell old FABs and/or Equipment,
which AMD did with their 200mm lines. This would be the best
you could do. That would be an amazing move for SPSN, too bad
I see the probab. at 0,01%.
BUGGI |
