OK, boys and girls, I propose that all interested folks put down their predictions for 2008 and that they be marked for posterity and comparison at the appropriate time. Here are mine:
1. Gold will be in 4 figures at some point. My tea leaves, chicken entrails, Tarot cards and Ouija board [actually, a number of historical ratios going back decades sauced with the wisdom of Russell, who predicted the gold boom in 2003] all unanimously say that gold's fair price is now, today, in the $1200 range. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, gold is a Buffett-like value play much like QCOM was in 1998.
I will eat my hat if this one doen't come to pass.
2. Financials will get hit harder. There is more credit crap coming down the pike. My personal benchmark, Citi, has breached the all important 30 level and is now teetering on the precipice. Citi will go to the low teens and may not survive in its present form. Accordingly, look for SKF to hit 150 sometime during the year. That's right, Mr. Chen, 1-5-0. The fun has just begun.
3. Recession for sure.
4. Dow Jones Industrials in the 10,500-10,800 range at the lowest. Tough, I know, but does anyone recall where we started in 2007?
5. Agricultural commodities and natural resources will do very well. My personal benchmarks, DBC and DBA, will both go to high 40s. My 2x leveraged commodities mutual fund, DXCLX [did I get those pesky Xs correct, Snowshoe?], is going to pay off nicely.
6. Price of oil will hit a high of 120 sometime during the year. The repercussions for oilsands and other oily stocks are obvious.
7. Canada will BOOM thanks to its wealth of varied natural resources, ranging from wheat to oil, forestry, gold, natgas and oilsands. My personal benchmark, EWC, now at 32 and change, will hit north of 50. Next to gold, Canada will be the single most spectacular investment story of 2008. I am not commenting on China as it is a riddle wrapped inside an enigma for me. Too many forces at play, i.e., growth, dependency on exports, inflation, Olympics, bubblefication, etc., which make it a hugely difficult call so I am punting on China. The coming Canadian boom is as plain as the nose on my face.
8. Obama vs. Romney or McCain. Winner? Flip a coin.
9. At least one major terror event. Where? US or Europe. This prediction is a no-brainer.
10. New Orleans Saints win conference, NFC, and go to Super Bowl. I can dream, eh? |
