re:["DGoldstein, I haven't bought PAL yet..."]
Neither did he.
You guys are smarter than this and especially
you Ron (...a little surprise for you below).
Take a look at the ban list for this thread:
Ban List for Welcome to Slider's Dugout
DGoldstein53
IAMANIDIOT
Nor Skrem
SwingTrader2006
Uranium2007
...they are all the same person.
And Ron Merks, do yourself a favor...
Write your name out on an 8 1/2 x 11 sheet of paper.
Then go into the bathroom.
Hold the sheet up to the mirror.
Then look into the mirror and tell me what you see.
"Nor Skrem" is Ron Merks spelled backwards.
...how clever.
Merky boy - how'd you miss that one (vbg)?
And remember Sandy (who became "IAMANIDIOT")?
Uranium2007 became SwingTrader2007, added Sandy(IAMANIDIOT),
then he added "Nor Skrem" and started posting to himself on
other threads and now he's reappeared "DGoldstein53."
Some of those posts were done at 2:30 a.m. in the morning.
Think of an adult man, with a family, and a job...and
whose life is evidently so empty that they stay up until
2 am in the morning to play games on internet message boards?
Someone who likes to use "lol" a lot, someone with
a fixation on "charts" and "reading charts"....
someone who's main screen name has an "h" and an "i"
in it...
3 guesses and the first two don't count.
Now it's point and figure charts.
3 months from now it will be fractals, or E-Wave.
Just another schmuck who thinks he will find a
"magic bullet" that will make him rich.
Earth to psycho-stalker, wannabe-chartman:
...there are no magic bullets.
And there certainly are not any to be found
in any "TA" system.
Never has been...never will be.
TA's only value lies within it's complimentary
application to a correct interpretation of the
fundamentals and sentiment.
They are 3 legs of the same stool.
None can stand alone.
Never have -- never will.
The key to trading and/or market timing, is to
know which of the three legs of the stool the
market is predominantly trading upon at that
given moment in time.
And when the market, or a particular sector,
stock, or commodity are trading on the technicals,
it's important to know which individual technical
indicator is giving you the clearest read.
It may be volume. It may be the ratio to the underlying
commodity such as the HUI:Gold ratio, or it may be
simple support and resistance lines when stuck in
a trading range.
And more often than not, it will be a combination of
indicators, that must then be then weighed against both
the fundamentals and sentiment, in order to form a clear
and accurate picture.
Take this to the bank:
"There are no magic bullets -- technical, or otherwise."
And it doesn't take genius to be a great trader.
If that was so... theoretical physicists and mathematical
geniuses would all be billionaires - not 90k college
professors.
Think back to childhood...
How many of the "best and brightest" that you knew
growing up -- failed and failed badly in life?
And how many seeming "average Joe's" - became the
millionaire next door?
Common sense is much more richly rewarded and much
more often so... than genius.
...both in the market -- and in life.
That was the point I was trying to make over the
ridiculous debate on whether the Fed was really
adding liquidity and inflating money supply here.
I've always been more than willing to give anyone who
has a sincere disagreement with anything I have said an
open forum.
But, playing games... throwing out the extreme opposite
of whatever I say -- just for the sake of saying it,
then changing screen name, after screen name and turning
that into a 7 month long, psychopathic online stalking
obsession...has nothing to do with any desire to
debate ideas, or to share anything of value with anyone
here.
There is only one person banned here.
All those screen names are the same person.
And to be completely honest.... I really hope they find
some help. Because if you are an adult man with a family,
and you're staying up until 2:30 a.m. playing message board
games on the internet and taking time from a Holiday week
away from your family for an online obsession...you are
one sick puppy - and need help.
All I can do is hit the "ban" button...and go on.
Enough of that... because "attention" is obviously
much of what this person craves.
As far as PAL?
If you want to take a flyer on a beaten down stock after
banking a major trade, and throw a little mad money into a
flyer....you need to look for a reasonable entry.
I think this was a reasonable entry...
PAL sold off on in early/mid December on it's dilutive
financing and disappointing news.
And it sold off on heavy, heavy volume.
Volume of 1.4, 1.2, 1.5, 7.8, 2.9, and 1.5
million share days, culminating the week of Dec. 10th.
The closing low on PAL was $3.40 on Dec. 11th, on it's
highest volume day of 7.8 million shares.
It has since bottomed on both price and volume.
I mentioned PAL on the morning of Dec. 20th.
It opened at $3.69.
The low in intra-day trading since was - $3.66.
The closing lows each day since have been,
$3.67, $3.70, $3.83, $3.77 and $3.70.
You'd really, really have to be trying to have
lost any money so far in PAL.
Now I have a long chain... and I really don't mind
it being pulled from time to time...
But, if you claim you're stopping out on 6 cent moves in
a $3.70 stock that's not even budged yet, and is down from
double digits... please - go pull someone else's chain.
Fwiw... Palladium is now at the extreme bottom of it's
historic price relationship with Platinum:
Rogue nailed the bottom in PAL and Merks called
SWC's break... so I'll give credit where credit
is due, and will give you yet another way to play
the "discrepancy between price and risk"
between Palladium and Platinum.
I've been selling PAL puts... because they have
VERY RICH PREMIUMS (remember the Goldman Sachs play?).
You have many options with these options (pun intended),
and here's just three...
1. Sell the puts and just bank the huge cash
premiums like the $1.45 on the June $5 Puts:
finance.yahoo.com
...if PAL doesn't close above $5 upon expiration
in June... you now own the stock for a $3.55 cost
basis + commissions and fee's.
2. Sell the puts and and buy some common. Or, use the
premiums to fund "all", or "some" of your common purchase.
...if you buy the PAL common outright at $3.70 and
bank the $1.45 June $5 premium. If PAL closes above $5
in June and you don't have to buy in the stock - you
just got a double+ on your money.
...and that's what we're looking for - "doubles."
... if you're looking for penny-ante, chicken-shit,
wannabe scalps, then you're in the wrong place,
because we be Elephant Hunters here.
3. Sell the puts and buy calls.
...let your put sales fund some call options buys.
...if PAL settles above the strike price of the puts,
the premium is your profit and either offsets, or
covers the cost of your calls - even if they expire
worthless.
...if your calls become profitable - you bank the
profits from the calls and the put sale premium.
A little more aggressive than #'s 1 and 2 above.
Those are just 3 options. I like the June $5's
because the premiums are rich (we get the full
effect of the recent volatility in PAL), we
get 6 months of time....and the $5 strike is only
a dead-cat bounce away.
This is where the little guy - the individual
investor/trader has the advantage. The big
boys are not playing in PAL... there just
isn't enough liquidity... they're in larger
plays.
But, given the volatility and the huge selloff
in PAL... we got BIG, FAT, RICH premiums hanging
like over-ripe fruit.
Take advantage of opportunities like this when
extreme volatility gives you those big fat rich
premiums like they did with Goldman Sachs back in
August.
You can get paid very well to take on some risk, on
a stock you want to buy anyway... and once again -
we're talking about taking a flyer with a small
portion of our "mad money" after busting the bank
on the HUI for the last 15 months.
The time to take on more risk and to get a little
aggressive is when you've just banked a bundle...
and not after you've been whipsawed and
bounced off the walls like a racquetball.
It's much easier to take on some risk and throw a
little mad money at a flyer, or two... when you're
trading out in front of the market... in anticipation
of it - and not behind it and in reaction to it.
A few years ago, a very sharp, and very well known
options trader told me this...
"Trading is 75% mindset and only 25% knowledge and ability."
To be honest, at the time - I thought he was full of shit.
Over time... I've learned from the school of hard knocks
that he was right.
Skate to where the puck is going to be - not to where it is.
I'm assuming you don't need to be told that we're not
looking for a .04 cent scalp on a beaten down and battered,
sub $4 stock that's down from double digits.
We're looking for 50% to 100% gains, or better.
Stops? - they are in the eye of the beholder. The same
with averaging in... I would hope that no one here needs
to be schooled on that... all trading 101.
And regarding "individual" stocks?
I think Goldman, Fannie and Freddie qualified as
"individual names" - did they not?
I trade a lot of options... individual commodities,
indexes, ETF's, as well as individual stocks.
If you look at the top of this page, you'll see
the following description of what this thread is
all about...
"Home to the Debate and the Discussion of the Big Picture,
Macro View of the Gold & Natural Resource Sectors."
This isn't about "stock picks" and it's not a day trading
thread. Only a newbie, or an idiot would want to "daytrade"
gold stocks for penny scalps in a sector that moves in
100-150 point index swings.
That's not trading - that's pretending (or, an addiction).
If that's what you want, I think you know where to find it here on SI.
I would love to share a lot of research, charts and even
some specific trades and stock picks that I simply can not.
...there's personal, and then there's professional.
That's life.
As far as individual names in the HUI index, which
I spend most of my time on this thread talking
about and trading... I think billy wright was the last
one to ask which stocks I liked the best and what I
was buying - back when we caught the turn on the August
capitulation, and forced selling bottom.
Here's a chart of the HUI components I bought... I think
they did pretty well out of the blocks compared to the HUI
index itself, in the turn up off the bottom from August...
And one last thing...
In a market like we've had for the last year - it's
been easier to make money on the short side than on
the long side. And usually it always is.
What's wrong with making money in both directions?
Technically, it's no different than trading long.
If you don't trade short - start paper trading, or start
small. But, do jump in and get your feet wet.
...it's all mindset.
Mo later,
Cigar night and UFC 79: Nemesis await...
Any other UFC fans out there? My favorite fighter is
Canadian - Georges St. Pierre. We'll see of "GSP" can do
it again. And Liddell vs. Silva - it just doesn't get
any better than that.
S.O.T.B. |
