I've an idea your record is not sustainable.
Large percentage gains off a small base in initial years.
'Course I said similar and worse about Mike Burry. And look where he is now.
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I got to see those audited statements to be convinced about Cramer. And I never see them anywhere.
In '98 or so, when the market tanked, I believe hedge funds or funds or websites that claimed great success changed. What the owners did was to start new hedge funds and new websites. Thus essentially wiping the slate clean, starting over, and ignoring the disastrous year that killed performance figures they were previously touting. So I'd like to know just what figures on what fund for what people Cramer reports. I don't doubt that the billionaire who who gave Cramer his start and stuck with him (I presume), is happy with Cramer's performance. The people who came later, I wonder. I don't see them complaining in the media, so maybe they're happy too. It's really all irrelevant though.
There would be two things somebody reporting in the media to have had outsize gains over a decade or more would be saying. 1.) I get these outsize gains, they're typical or have been for me, and if you want to duplicate that too, give me your money to invest. 2.) I get these outside gains, so I'm a guru, listen to me and learn from me (Buy my books, listen to my show, feed my ego. I want you to succeed.) With Cramer, from what I've read and what I've heard from him, if one listens to how he invests (not mad money, not speculating), he makes a lot of sense. That puts him in the investor group with which I am familiar. A group where 24% gains for 13 years or more is not common and not sustainable afaik. To get those 24% gains (if he got them), Cramer went beyond "investing" with his "trading goddess", his machinations, etc. For me, I am always looking for what works for the average investor, and these things Cramer employs are not available or are unappealing. In that sense, Cramer's record doesn't give any particular reason for listening to him.
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I have been looking at AIG as a value play. I happened to read Cramer's two sentence analysis: Stay away. Heavy insider selling will keep the price down. - And when I checked, I found it to be a compelling reason (so far) to not buy the stock. (The 10% or more holder seems to sell tons into strength.) I'm saying although I dismiss Cramer's record, and I can't take more than a couple of minutes, if that, of his theatrics, I do want to consider his stock ideas as separate from the man, his wealth, his record, his ability to irritate, or his questionable methodology. One never knows where a good stock idea will come from. |
