It's odd & close as a straight razor
shave, but I have to write y'all about it:
gold today closed at 839.60, above
its previous high close of 835.20 (8 Nov).
Now for a clean breakout you'd like to
see a close 2% or 3% above the last high
close, say, 852 to 860.25. However, gold
in Euros has not broken out, nor in
Japanese yen, although it is pushing
on the ceiling.
Meanwhile the US DOLLAR INDEX
has lost 152.8 basis points since last
Friday. I keep getting the feeling that
something is going on behind the
scenes, something very big, but I haven't
a clue what so maybe that's my
want of insight speaking, trying to find
cover. Gold & Silver both delayed their
seasonal lows well into December,
while Oil (like Freddy Kruger in
Nightmare on Elm Street) refuses to die
& make its seasonal peak and recede.
The dollar rallies, then fades -- not
inspiring, although it is fairly typical.
STOCKS I thought had bottomed, but
this week have made daily 200 point
swings with no progress at end of
day, up or down. On balance, the last
week has been a loser.
So where are we? I'm scratching my
head. Silver & gold, especially gold,
have behaved very, very strongly
this week. If they open the year higher
& gold holds on to these gains, you
will probably see US$1,100 - 1,200 gold
by mid-February. Downside is that
if gold fails here, it puts a double top
on the move and means much more
time correcting. Thinking on this
week's strength, it seems likelier that
gold will continue to run in the next
year.
the-moneychanger.com
the-moneychanger.com |
