Minimum Wage History:
Public Law Effective date Rate
P.L. 75-718 October 1938 $ .25
(Enacted, 6/25/38) October 1939 .30
October 1945 .40
P.L. 81-393 January 1950 .75
(Enacted, 10/26/49)
P.L. 84-381 March 1956 1.00
(Enacted, 8/12/55)
P.L. 87-30 September 1961 1.15
(Enacted, 5/5/61) September 1963 1.25
P.L. 89-601 February 1967 1.40
(Enacted, 9/23/66) February 1968 1.60
P.L. 93-259 May 1974 2.00
(Enacted, 4/8/74) January 1975 2.10
January 1976 2.30
P.L. 95-151 January 1978 2.65
(Enacted, 11/1/77) January 1979 2.90
January 1980 3.10
January 1981 3.35
P.L. 101-157 April 1990 3.80
(Enacted, 11/17/89) April 1991 4.25
P.L. 104-188 October 1996 4.75
(Enacted, 8/20/96) September 1997 5.15
(http://www.cnie.org/nle/crsreports/economics/econ-64.cfm)
Now examine the graph on this of recessionsfrom this paper: (http://www.econ.ilstu.edu/uauje/PDF's/issue1998/Minimum_Wage.pdf)
Each time the minimum wage was increased in the displayed period the economy went into a recession. What an uncanny coincidence.
Some times the economy was so weak that the recession started immediately and some times it took a year or two to take hold.
.........................
from the December 03, 2001 edition
America in recession: what history shows
Compiled by Amanda Paulson
The United States officially entered an economic recession in March, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced last week. The six-member panel of economists, based in Cambridge, Mass., is the unofficial arbiter of when recessions (by definition, at least six months of negative growth) begin and end.
Many economists predict the current recession will be short and mild, though plenty of factors could change that. A March beginning means the period of economic expansion lasted exactly 10 years - a record by more than a year. A look at previous recessions and their durations:
<pre Start of
recession Duration
(in months)
Feb. 1945 9
Nov. 1948 11
July 1953 10
Aug. 1957 9
April 1960 10
Dec. 1969 11
Nov. 1973 16
Jan. 1980 6
July 1981 16
July 1990 9
csmonitor.com
This paper was published prior to determining that March 2001 was the start of a recession.
Combine the data:
Public Law Effective date Rate Months to start recession
P.L. 75-718 October 1938 $ .25 Still in depression
October 1939 .30 Still in depression
October 1945 .40 -9 First post depression recession/
P.L. 81-393 January 1950 .75 30
P.L. 84-381 March 1956 1.00 17
P.L. 87-30 September 1961 1.15 -17 (Recession probably caused wage hike)
September 1963 1.25
P.L. 89-601 February 1967 1.40
February 1968 1.60 18
P.L. 93-259 May 1974 2.00 -6 (Stagflation - Wage & Price freezes)
January 1975 2.10
January 1976 2.30
P.L. 95-151 January 1978 2.65 24
January 1979 2.90 12
January 1980 3.10 18
January 1981 3.35 Extended recession
P.L. 101-157 April 1990 3.80 3
April 1991 4.25
P.L. 104-188 October 1996 4.75
September 1997 5.15 30
What is missing is when it appeared evident that a minimum wage law was going to happen. It is clear that the correlation is not as close as I had stated, but that there is a clear correlation between minimum wage increases and recession. I would say that this is ample proof that increases in minimum wages cause recessions. |
