"This addresses the minimum wage increase linkage to recession:"
Not really.
Here is a complete list of recessions and other economic whoopsies.
en.wikipedia.org
So, let's match them up with that table. Which, admittedly, I haven't double checked.
Public Law Effective date Rate
P.L. 75-718 October 1938 $ .25 recession occurred in 1937
(Enacted, 6/25/38) October 1939 .30 It ended by this time
October 1945 .40 War also ended. So the min. wage hike wasn't the only factor. Recessions usually follow the end of a war.
P.L. 81-393 January 1950 .75 There was a recession in '48-'49 and one right after the war in '53. So...
(Enacted, 10/26/49)
P.L. 84-381 March 1956 1.00
(Enacted, 8/12/55) There was a recession in '57 and another in '60.
P.L. 87-30 September 1961 1.15 There was one in '60 and '65.
(Enacted, 5/5/61) September 1963 1.25 There was one in '60 and '69
P.L. 89-601 February 1967 1.40 There was one in '69
(Enacted, 9/23/66) February 1968 1.60 There was one in '69
P.L. 93-259 May 1974 2.00 There was one in '73 and '79
(Enacted, 4/8/74) January 1975 2.10 There was one in '73 and '79
January 1976 2.30 There was one in '73 and '79
P.L. 95-151 January 1978 2.65 There was one in '73 and '79
(Enacted, 11/1/77) January 1979 2.90 There was one in '73 and '79
January 1980 3.10 There was one in '79 and '81
January 1981 3.35 There was one in '79 and '81
P.L. 101-157 April 1990 3.80 There was one in '88 and one in Japan in '91
(Enacted, 11/17/89) April 1991 4.25 There was one in '88 and one in Japan in '91
P.L. 104-188 October 1996 4.75
(Enacted, 8/20/96) September 1997 5.15 I guess this is what caused the collapse of the Asian bond market...
Bottom line. There is an economic whoopsie somewhere in the world every few years. In most of the cases, the economic whoopsie occurred in an environment when there were lots of other, major factors feeding in to the situation. Seeing as how the recession often preceded the min. wage hike is a strong indication that the min. wage hike is more of a symptom than a cause.
Edit:
Especially when you consider that a 1-2 year window is given. Just about any randomly chosen year with have a recession within a year or two of it. |
