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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: Perspective who wrote (98763)1/2/2008 10:32:28 PM
From: jmiller099Read Replies (1) of 306849
 
Re: Positioning

I have been positioning in metals as some fixed termed certificates mature. I have an unhealthy cash balance that is rotting away with CPI and real CPI ratcheting up.

Separately, I played a decent sized position on COF puts to catch half of their down move from mid 70s to 50, but I didn't stay with it til the 50s and 40s by rolling out further in time. These were on short term puts, so went up in nice multiples.

I managed to lose a chunk of it in calls on FXY at the last top. Another chunk died on FRPT calls, but that is off the scope of this topic.

Now, following scottonstocks post, I am positioned in near term puts on BZH. Holding still, so I probably owe him a beer, regardless of 1929crash's labelling it as cockamamie. I will probably close this soon and roll out to February soon. Trying to see if I can reverse the law that short squeeze funny business is prone to occur and always against my positions ;).

I will probably take another swipe on consumer credit shorts as this quarter nears conclusion. I continue to wait to see when I can short goog, but every paper trade I make in puts on them gets evaporated so not sure I will ever get a good opportunity to catch them.

Lastly, KMX is a little intriguing. I've watched it for a couple quarters and seen them take a hit on earnings each time. I have to do more DD on them, but they may have a good chance to scoop up repo cars cheap. Maybe people will be buying used for the next round of autos. Two concerns: A) Will people be buying autos or will KMX get too many used cars they can not unload. B) Does KMX finance these autos which goes against the shorting of consumer credit line of thinking.
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