This just about guarantees the Big Top is not yet at hand. By the end of 2008 the general markets should be rocking and rolling.
Clinton sees U.S. economy tilting toward recession
reuters.com
I went in and read about Hilary in Wikipedia. Quite a resume really (used to be a Republican no less), but we think she may be jumping the gun here. The politicos in our opinion are always of late telling us how bad off we (the US of A) are, and what they then are going to do about it all. Can't be great without having some major problems to fix, right? Well honestly, I have never had it so good. I look around and it seems the same for many, even though few seem to realize it.
In regard to this correction in progress we had previously posted some indicator charts, and indicated we would follow them, as the correction progresses. It is time to look at the first one, Ebay.
First of all we think the correction in progress is not yet finished, but well along. It would appear we should seek some sort of initial bottom before the month is out, with a possible retest later this spring. We think this correction could turn into a choppy sideways mess, after a bit here, and last a while longer.
Ebay has not given back very much here. The EW analysis that jumps out (for me) is still extremely bullish and in concert with previous thoughts. We have to follow it along, and see that the main trend line holds. Right now we think it will.
If, as predicted, Ebay is in fact in the beginning stages of a 5th wave. We think it will be a long and robust move. It will arc up with power, and probably subdivide into 5 waves. The 1st wave (of the 5th) is finished, and the first correction well along. A 5th wave could see over 70 dollars rise, from the start, putting the big top near 100 dollars.
We have not been on the bottle this evening! Follow the SOXX in our opinion (as well as the NDX). If these indices hold here there are some extreme bullish possibilities for the not too distant future.
Other charts we posted included WMT, C and TOL. We will update these later, but current comments are:
Walmart (WMT) ... It is holding the 38 area line, very well. Has given back very little so far. The longer it does the more bullish this chart also becomes, with the result being a boisterous 5th wave up yet to come. We don't think WMT has bottomed here yet, and it may be a spell.
Cities (C) ... We had C well along in a C of a Big 2 down. Still falling but we tend to think it is in a final wave down here, and heading towards a reversal. The A of 2 did an exact 61 % retracement of the whole 1 up, a minimum requirement. C is closing in on that again, for a possible double bottom in the 23 to 24 range. A prime suspect area for a reversal.
Toll Brothers (TOL) .... We had Tol in a C of A of a Big 2, and still falling. The 70 % fib retracement did not hold. Tol appears to have entered a vth of C now, and it too is on its way to an apparent major bottom, probably in the low single digits. There are two fibs coming up, one at 15.7 and one at 12.7. If the C of A approximates the A of A in length, the 12.7 area is more probable.
2008 could be a very interesting year. If we have some major reversals in the home builders and the financials, this spring, it will speak volumes (our opinion). And if money flows back into those sectors later this year, as well as possibly tech, it likely has to be given up from some other sector(s). What else might need unwinding here?
We do feel one should not at this point under estimate the power of The Fed, and their free liquidity shots. |
