Democrats See Obama as Best Chance to Beat G.O.P., Exit Polls Find
January 9, 2008
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and MEGAN THEE
nytimes.com
MANCHESTER, N.H. — Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire viewed Senator Barack Obama as more likely than Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to beat the Republican nominee in 2008, according to exit polls conducted Tuesday, a reversal of the previous trends in national polls.
But in contrast to polling results in the Iowa caucuses, women here rallied around Mrs. Clinton. Nearly half the women who voted in the Democratic primary gave her their support, the exit polls showed.
On the Republican side, nearly half of primary voters said their biggest concerns were terrorism and the Iraq war. The exit polls showed that nearly half were dissatisfied or angry with President Bush. A third disapproved of the war. Each of those groups of Republicans broke decisively for Senator John McCain, suggesting more viewed him as a critic than as a supporter of the administration.
The wide-open contests in both parties drew record crowds, and some polling places were forced to send out for extra ballots. Voters in both parties said that they were worried the economy was going in the wrong direction — including nearly all Democrats and about 8 in 10 Republicans — but the exit polls suggested that a more complicated mix of issues decided the races.
Voters said they resoundingly rejected the populist appeals to their economic anxieties that they had heard from John Edwards among the Democrats and Mike Huckabee among the Republicans. Instead, Democrats said they were drawn to Mr. Obama’s promises of unity and change, and Republicans to Mr. McCain’s leadership in matters of national security.
Undeclared voters, who can participate in either primary, were a major factor on the Democratic side. Mr. Obama won big among undeclared voters but lost to Mrs. Clinton among registered Democrats. On the Republican side, Mr. McCain beat former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts among undeclared voters, who have been a mainstay of his support, and registered Republicans.
The exit polls were conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool consortium among 1,799 Democratic voters and 1,300 Republican voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points for each party.
Mr. Obama received more than twice as much support as Mrs. Clinton among voters under 30, lost to her only narrowly among older voters and beat her handily among men.
Voters in the Democratic primary were roughly evenly divided among those who considered the war, health care and the economy the most important issues.
Mr. Obama campaigned as an early opponent of the war in Iraq, and Mrs. Clinton campaigned as best-qualified to overhaul health care. But the exit polls indicated that both voters most concerned about the war and those most concerned about the health care system favored Mr. Obama, while voters who cited the economy as their top concern went for Mrs. Clinton.
Voters in the Republican primary were roughly evenly divided among those who cited the economy, the Iraq war, terrorism and illegal immigration as their top concerns. In addition to dominating the votes of those concerned about terrorism and the war, Mr. McCain won among those most concerned about the economy — an area where Mr. Romney, a founder of a giant private equity firm, hoped to have an edge.
Mr. Romney, who hammered Mr. McCain with advertisements criticizing his support for allowing illegal immigrants a path to citizenship, attracted the most support from voters concerned about that issue.
But criticism of Mr. Romney for changing his position on abortion rights and his tone on other social issues clearly hurt him. About half the Republican voters who sought a candidate who “says what he believes” chose Mr. McCain. About one in 10 chose Mr. Romney.
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