SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: GST who wrote (90285)1/9/2008 4:24:58 PM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
'There is a widespread and thoroughly misguided notion that a recession in the US means deflation is coming our way. If that was true your investment strategy would be guided in one direction. If on the other hand a recession in the US is coupled to a surge in inflationary pressures in the US, then your investment strategy would be to move in exactly the opposite direction as you would in a deflation.'

We had three recessions during the stagflation cycle of 1968-1982, two of which were the worst since the great depression..

I talked to some in my family in the restaurant business in Manhattan during the 1970's. Even with all the doom, sky high misery index, the stock market plunge, commercial RE as bad as 1990-93 and NYC on the verge of bankruptcy in 1975 their biz was as good or better during that period than any time in the post WW II period including 1985-87, 1997-99 and 2005-07.. Seems like the biggest losers for that entire period were holders of cash in the bank and long term bonds. The motto of the story is the major asset classes might fluctuate near term but a steady increase in costs of essential goods and services you use every day will continue to always go up regardless..
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News