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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold & Gold Stock Analysis

GLD 422.21

+1.9%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Claude Cormier who wrote (11155)	1/12/2008 11:27:40 AM
From: SwampDogg	Read Replies (2) of 29622

No, in the stocks the consolidation that ended in August '07 looks to be of large degree. At the very least this is a Wave 3 of (5). It is not that it just counts this way but the sentiment is very representative of a Wave 3 and the tape reeks of it (very few corrections and tough to get on). It will not be a Wave 5 until everybody believes that gold will never go down. That is not the case now (just listened to Barbera looking for a big top in gold in the next week). People still do not get that in Wave 3s indicators fail. RSI will stay overbought for a long time and even when it drops gold may still go higher (running correction). People have to revisit the tech market of 1996-2000 or energy 2004-2006 to get a clue here. I would lean to a move to at least $HUI 500-525 and then maybe a 10%-15% correction. The days of the huge corrections are over until mid year. This should be an environment where the juniors can run on their merits with little effect from the gold price.

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