@Samsung
"
NOR ASP declines were single digit in 4Q and the guidance was for double digits in 1Q08
"
Single digit decline -> 1% or 9% down?
I think we were all aware, that -5% for the ASPs QoQ should
be a "normal" Q4-range, thats what I expected. The question
is, how much volume SPSN was able to deliver with 1,3x Book to
bill. Handset shipments overall seem to be very good, so the
only remaining question once again is, how much marketshare
SPSN was able to gain again? I'm looking for around 10% QoQ
volume increases from the market + marketshare gains, which
should translate to around (VERY ROUGH!!!) 10-15% volume
increases for SPSN QoQ. If we take around -5% from the ASP
into account, this would translate into +(5-10)% Rev-gain QoQ.
At this point, I can't deny the very very weak SPSN-Stock
price, which show me the low-end more likely. I'm looking
for around 4-6% QoQ gain right now, which is around 640Mio.
Thats below analyst forecast, but I think they will beat
earnings (-53C) and come in around -45C.
A good question could be, how much the dollar could impact
our numbers. IBM was +8% only from the dollar, I could
imagine 2-4% for SPSN too, which would lead to 650-660Mio.
Once again, I don't know what happened after the Q2 (12$
stock) compared to now (3$ stock)?
BUGGI |
