ouch
Krugman has predicted 9 of the last 0 recessions.
…but on the bright side, if we go into recession now, his success rate will go all the way up to 10%!
tjic.com
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Will the economy decline in 2008?
11 Jan 2008 10:44 am
Paul Krugman is voting for doom. It's worth keeping in mind, however, that Paul Krugman has predicted eight of the last none recessions under the Bush administration...
meganmcardle.theatlantic.com
Like Megan, I think "a recession seems likely-ish", but "Krugman predicts" is generally a good sign to bet the other way.
* "[R]ight now it looks as if the economy is stalling..." — Paul Krugman, September 2002
* "We have a sluggish economy, which is, for all practical purposes, in recession..." — Paul Krugman, May 2003
* "An oil-driven recession does not look at all far-fetched." — Paul Krugman, May 2004
* "[A] mild form of stagflation - rising inflation in an economy still well short of full employment - has already arrived." — Paul Krugman, April 2005
* "If housing prices actually started falling, we'd be looking at [an economy pushed] right back into recession. That's why it's so ominous to see signs that America's housing market ... is approaching the final, feverish stages of a speculative bubble." — Paul Krugman, May 2005
* "In fact, a growing number of economists are using the "R" word [i.e., "recession"] for 2006." - Paul Krugman, August 2005
* "But based on what we know now, there’s an economic slowdown coming." - Paul Krugman, August 2006
* "this kind of confusion about what’s going on is what typically happens when the economy is at a turning point, when an economic expansion is about to turn into a recession" - Paul Krugman, December 2006
* "Right now, statistical models ... give roughly even odds that we’re about to experience a formal recession. ... [T]he odds are very good — maybe 2 to 1 — that 2007 will be a very tough year." - Paul Krugman, December 2006...
Comments
Wait until a recession eventually comes, whether it be next year, 2010, or 2015. Paul Krugman will say, "See, I told you so!... I told you back in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007...ect"
Written By: Jimmy the Dhimmi
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