@Rink - ASPs
I was surprised too to hear from Intel, that ASPs rose this
quarter. Your assumption seems correct for me. But one thing
is clear, the news from some Internet sites were completly
bullshit which stated some weeks ago, that Intel is very
agrressive again in the market -> just the opposite was true
because of the given facts.
When it comes to Samsung, I have looked at their NOR off.
two weeks ago. I could only see modules up to 512Mbit
officially, so it seems, that Spansion and Intel or the
only ones above 512Mbit right now.
I have said this already enough times, Samsung is gaining
(imho) because their handset business gains clearly market-
share (growth around 2x of the market) and they ship
internally. I don't have final handset shipments on hand,
but from the Samsung pdf, they show around 1130Mio. for
the whole 2007. Q4 alone should be around 27-29% from the
year -> I'm taking 28% here, which is around 310-320Mio.
Samsung alone shipped 46,4 => near 15%. I don't know, how
much external NOR DIEs they buy, but I assume, they ship
nearly 100% internally, which would make very much sense.
Assume thats right, Samsung would instantly have 15% NOR
marketshare worldwide in the handset market, which is by
far the biggest "consumer".
When it comes to Spansions ASPs, I don't have more facts on
hand - the market seems invisible for all, also analysts.
The determ. factor should be probably, which modules SPSN
shipped "more". If high-end was strong and Intel didn't
cut prices, SPSN could have good prices here, which clearly
has to be seen. You could right, that Samsung fighted in
the low-mid range and prices dropped. Was this a major part
for SPSN too? If so, SPSN ASPs also dropped. So, its up to
you what you think.
I was also surprised, that Intels NOR volume shrinked QoQ.
The market clearly gained volume QoQ, so one "person" has
to ship all these volumes. Again, I find it very likely, that
the Newco topic caused so much uncertainty at the customers,
that they switch/switched to SPSN and/or Samsung. I wouldn't
be surprised, if SPSN clearly gained marketshare and reached
around 35% volume marketshare already. I have looked again
at this:
files.shareholder.com
Page 7 shows 32% marketshare for SPSN in the first half of
2007 -> don't know if this is Rev. or volume => I assume
volume. Samsung was at 13%, so my 15% mark seems relativly
right -> Samsung gains share -> could be 16-17% too. So,
if my assume this is right, SPSN gained 3% and Samsung
gained 2-3% => so both gained 5-6% marketshare, which STM
and Intel combined lost. I further assume, that all the
"Other" guys lost share too. SST and Others were at 19%
combined, I could imagine, they went down to 17-18% at the
end of 2007 and go to 15% for the full year of 2008. When
SPSN is able to execute on 300mm SP1 and TSMC with 65nm
and 90nm and could ship new stuff on time, I could imagine
they could reach around 40% marketshare for the whole NOR
market by the end of 2008, so 35-37% over the full year
combined - 40% is Q4-2008 only. Interesting times ...
BUGGI |
