Hi, all. Just looking at historical charts. Getting quite scary looking of late. So much of what we have built over the years is a house of cards. Credit, housing, equity markets, you name it. And politicians are afraid to upset apple carts during an election year. . . so no help there (as if they actually would help anyway). So what's an investor to do.
As I've been saying on and off for about 3 years now. . . foreign ETFs area really nice place to park some cash. . . if you must park some cash somewhere. My fav GCH just paid $11 and change dividend....again!...(anyone remember when I first brought that one here?). So compare that dividend to. . . well ANY U.S. stock and I am sure you will be impressed. Many many others out there.. . use your imagination. And no, I don't feel bad about investing elsewhere. Actual shareholder equity in nearly all U.S. stocks is SO insignificant, as to not even warrant discussion of dividends. Now don't get me wrong.....I am all for investing in U.S. companies. It is just that so much has changed over the past decade.
More importantly, we must consider that the cash we have sitting in stock or brokerage account represents college funds, house payments, retirement, remodeling, trust funds, new cars, traveling, etc. . . . real stuff. So if the air is let out of this balloon. . . .and we get a sudden SERIOUS decline of equity prices, it is not just a number on a screen that declines. It is real money, after all.
So many important indicators looking downward this year (to say the least). . . so many reasons for implosion. So few reasons for optimism. I am so sorry to report this (as if any of you here don't already know). . . it's like when you smell the air. . . feel the humidity . . .see the orange hues in the blackened sky . . and see the wind blowing in every direction. . . it is time to find a basement.
We have discussed the breaking down of the U.S. economy for years here. . . ."third world" status? Well, with the U.S. dollar as low as it is already, we could soon rival many. I found yesterday's jump in wholesale prices rather alarming. Not surprising. . . .considering we all knew prices were jumping like crazy and one can only average out gas prices for so long, before adjustments must be made. But it was shocking . . .to see how sharp the jumps can be. Remember what inflation was like in the 70's? It happens very very quickly. . . .it was nearly impossible to stay ahead of the sudden jumps.
I went back to the cheap store the other day to buy a few more large bags of Eight O'Clock Columbian Arabica whole beans for $7.99 . . . and in 3 days the price jumped to $9.99. No reason. Same bags. New . . . higher price. Thanks! >smirk<
As for how long it will take before we begin to see what is already unfolding. . . . Our entire economic picture in the U.S. could be made clearly in focus by merely fine tuning (or reinventing) the economic indicators with which our government has been so reliant. All it takes is one Harvard professor of economics . . .or a Fed governor . . to come up with a different set of numbers. . . more reliable . . . and the picture will take clear focus immediately.
What I am saying is. . . I think the economic picture will stay blurry using the current set of indicators. . . long after its effects have become obvious. It is when mom and pops across this land begin doing the math. . . and understanding what all is at stake. . . when it will more seriously affect their spending and decisions (in many parts of the country it already has), that we have a serious problem.
And so . . . what about all those depression era trading safeguards and safety nets that the SEC and others so kindly removed? DUH! The timing for removing them could not have been worse. . . . (or better, if you are a conspiracy theorist). The bottom line is. . . .if we break support levels on the Dow in the near-term, then it is a long and quick way down from there. . . I am seeing a very quick 1,500 points from here (12,500) down to 11,000 . . when I stand back and examine weekly and monthly support levels. . . not just intraday. That is a large enough dump to put some real fear into global markets. . . .not something the global economy can support either. So . . . uh . . . trying to locate a silver lining . .
Quick. . . . somebody tell me some good economic news. . . . something that Wall street can take and run with. . . . .uh. . . anybody . . . . . Bueller? . . . . uh . . . that's what I thought.
Just don't be a deer in the headlights!!!!
Best wishes,
Rande Is |
