Irby..Trading System? Not quite yet... but something has evolved that includes TA/FA, and sectors currently in favor, etc. I've always liked the idea behind NASDAQ GEMS and have seen the premise behind it (buying beaten down fundmentally sound stocks) voiced in an aggregrate of financial media.. Of late, I find myself using the rather lofty search criteria 'built' from companies like CDG, DELL, LU, INTC to uncover 'small/mid cap' companies with high eps and increasing RS.
If I were stressed or overly emotional I would not do this. If it were like real work, I wouldn't do it either...Research and trading are hobbies.. its fun for me... I come to trading from the low-paying, highly demanding field of graphic arts and teaching. I've never earned a lot of money, but I've worked 60-hour weeks. I had a little luck and come across some fantastic traders (mostly from Nasdaq Gems, Tech Options, #rttrader etc.) along the way who have helped .. Scott, Sam, Fred, Andie, Joe, Lou, Jerry, Nancy, Patti, Judy you'll recognize yourselves..:-)
Annualized rate of return...It's been about a year now and it hasn't been bad.. but there were some hard months... My long term portfolio has done better in early months of this year..
September was not the best month for options... I had losses in March. I've become an 'investor' in ASND much to my chagrin. I hope MLHR won't be my second 'investment'...
My best months are probably the earnings months: April/May ... June/July and September/October... so it looks like earnings season might evolve as a 'niche' for me...
The reason I like earnings season is because your plays move independent from market climate.. I've seen my plays go up when the market tanked over 100 points... (I've also seen some plays go down when NASDAQ was having a record-breaking up day..)
Unpredictable problems inherent in earnings plays:
1) Analyst downgrades the day earnings come out are very damaging. PWAV, DS were upgraded the day earnings came out and did very well, but JBIL and VTS were downgraded and suffered immediate losses... VTS ultimately recovered.
2)Suits and disclosed accounting irregularities will kill your play (i.e. MCAF after their fabulous earnings announcement..)MCAF is recovering...
3)Unexplained tanking of usually high-flying companies (i.e. MLHR) I chose to to be stopped out of MLHR and I'm anticipating a recovery in the stock.. |
