It is shifting every quarter, but vast majority of sales is from 200mm quarters in Q4. What is ramping up is SP1 and 300mm TSMC wafers. Later on, SMIC.
But as of Q4, the biggest single contributor to revenues is output from Fab 25 in Austin, which is 200mm.
I think at some point, there will be a talk of crossover between 200mm and 300mm output (in, say 200mm wafer equivalents). My guess is that the crossover will be in 2H 2008.
The thing is, though, that Spansion has existing 200mm capacity in place, while 300mm capacity is ramping up. The rate of 300mm capacity ramp is dependent on volume, which is kind of a catch 22.
Spansion's latest fab SP1 would have first phase ramp of 15-20kwpm of 300mm wafers (equivalent to 40kwpm of 200mm wafers, at mid-point of their ramp.) What I was trying to figure out is how much could this capacity help in lowering their costs and improving GMs. If this capacity is just 20% of their total 200mm + 300mm capacity, it doesn't really help the bottom line a whole lot, but if it will be a significant portion of their total capacity, it will be harder for others to compete unless they also move their production to 300mm! NOR business is slowing and has been a big loss maker for both Intel and STM and that's the reason they are divesting. They can let someone else run the company and do the dirty job of laying of employees and cutting costs without worrying about lawsuits, etc. from employees. Also, bringing the two business under one entity, they get the scale to lower the costs and improve their chances of survival. There will not be any new investments from STM and/or Intel for sure. |
