((You can't argue with Coxes' record. I find him an enjoyable listen.))
I agree on both points - his record and I actually enjoy his style of discourse (except when his neocon-bias emerges).
That being said, I've always felt he talks an investment banker's book. So while he has a pretty darned good record for getting the macro calls right in the context of a relatively stable financial system, I personally feel he underplays the fragility of the global financial system, and the ramifications of its unwinding.
I particularly felt this in August, when he basically blew off the risks that were emerging in the asset-backed paper market. He's since changed his tune a bit, but appears to completely dismiss a deflationary collapse of asset prices resulting from both (i) a global recession or worse, and (ii) a corresponding credit contraction as debt unwinds and banks go through the painful process of shoring up their balance sheets.
While it is possible, to my mind, that the powers that be are able to reliquify the financial system and we have a period of stagflation that are friendly to certain asset prices like agricultural commodities, it is at least as likely IMO that 2008 sees things really fall apart.
I can understand why a global economist strategist for an investment banking firm wouldn't want to emphasize the risk of such a negative scenario for fear of it becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Nonetheless, to my mind the risk is there, and should not be lightly glossed over.
Then again, I do think I have a bias towards "doom and gloom", so perhaps Coxe is right in his more serene outlook. And I did find his comment interesting that in tough times, investor priorities shift from the income statement to the balance sheet. And, that a lot of commodities-based companies have VERY healthy balance sheets. Certainly I've started to emphasize the health of the balance sheet more strongly in my portfolio in the past couple of months.
FWIW.
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